All That and a Bag of Mail

Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes II (5) throws before Tech plays Baylor in an NCAA college football game Friday, Nov. 25, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins) Ron Jenkins FR171331 AP

It’s Friday, rejoice because the weekend is near. 

And the mailbag is here to help power you through to happy hour. 

So here we go:

Adam writes:

“My bachelor party is next weekend in Nashville, and I’m not a huge strip club guy. I’ve been plenty of times, and honestly I’d rather just be at a regular bar. I’ve posed this challenge to my buddies. If they can convince normal girls at the bar to come to our rental house and perform stripper duties, I would pay $200 to the winner, and I’ve also set odds for each buddy and setting a betting market. The single guys are obviously the favorite, with the two married guys being longshots.

Do you think I’m going to be out $200 and are there any other stipulations you would add to the wager?”

My first question is what are you paying the girls? I think that matters more than paying the guys recruiting the girls. So I wouldn’t even bother setting odds for the guys, the odds should be set based on whether anyone can get a decent looking girl at all to strip for you. I mean, it’s not like your guys doing the recruiting, married or single, are Johnny Depp or Tom Brady. That is, I don’t think the guys doing the recruiting — assuming they’re around the same age as the girls and act normal — are going to be the difference makers here.

I think it’s about the money at stake.  

So let’s begin with this question, what percentage of “normal” girls at a typical Nashville bar that college graduates or college students go to would be willing to strip for a group of guys on a bachelor party weekend for $500?

That is, if you just had a decent looking normal guy walking up to girls and offer them $500 to come back to a house and strip, how many would do it for $500? I think it’s an insanely low percentage. You have to consider several factors all working against you here: 1. The risk. Who wants to bail on a bar night and then get naked for a bunch of random guys? That’s insanely dangerous. What if you’re all rapists or murderers? 2. The odds of it being recorded and the girl getting shamed one day for doing it. 3. The boyfriend factor. Most girls would have boyfriends or guys they are interested in that would think it was weird if she left with you to strip. 4. The group of girls factor. And even if they were willing to do it for money most girls are always worried about being the slutty girl in front of their friends too. 

I put your odds of this happening at an average bar filled with college graduate girls with real jobs at virtually zero. In fact, the only way I see it happening at all is if you end up finding an actual stripper at the bar who just isn’t working that night and hits the jackpot. 

Now the lower you go down the bar foodchain and the less attractive the girls become, the more likely it is to happen. That is, if you’re at a truckstop bar in Antioch, I think you could find someone for $500. But it probably wouldn’t be anyone you’d want. 

The flip side here is a group of hot girls on a bachelorette party could definitely get guys to come back and strip for them. Probably for free. And if a group of hot girls took the mic and said, “Y’all we’re looking for some normal college guys to come back and strip for this bachelorette at our house party. We’ll pay you $500,” just about every single guy in the bar would be willing to go.   

Honestly, I can’t wait to hear how this goes. Write back in with how the quest for amateur strippers on the Nashville bar scene goes.

And maybe I’m totally wrong, good luck.  

“Not sure if you’ve heard of this story, but it’s an absolute head-shaker here in Minnesota.

Long story short, a racist note was found on a student’s windshield at a small liberal arts college earlier this month. Student took the note to administration, news of note kicked-off widespread rallies and calls for change across campus, leading the school to cancel classes.

This week, after an investigation, it was revealed that the note was a “hoax” and fabricated. Whoever wrote the note just did it to drum up controversy.

2 quick things:

1) even after being informed of the hoax, two different students are quoted in the article as saying the note “started something good.” If that isn’t the most preposterous thing I’ve ever heard, I don’t know what is. Can’t say I agree with all the millennial bashing these days (although most of it certainly well-deserved), but if those quotes arent a death-knell for our generation as a whole idk what is

2) the article states that the identity of the student is protected by federal privacy laws, which is fair, I guess. But if this were a white student who actually left a racist note, between 99 and 101, what is the % that this student’s identity would be revealed, either by the college, the press, or “unidentified sources?” (which I believe would be fair as well)

Sorry for the rant/length. Just wasn’t sure if you had heard of this story.”

The person who left the note needs to be identified and prosecuted. 

Period. 

This is also why I don’t believe viral racial threat stories like these until the evidence clearly establishes they occurred. The media wants these hoaxes to be true so badly — just look at what happened at Mizzou — that they immediately cover the story even before verifying any of it. I can count at least ten different stories in the past year where people have just made up these racist threats and they’ve later proven to be the fabricator themselves. The initial racism story gets way more attention than the fact that it never happened. It’s why, honestly, I’m still skeptical that there were any racist chants in Fenway Park. You’re telling me someone in Fenway was screaming out racial slurs and it isn’t on video anywhere? Not one person Snapchatted it or Facebooked it or Tweeted it? Wouldn’t the first thing most people would do if they saw someone screaming a racial slur, especially in a city like Boston where the vast majority of the crowd voted for Hillary, be to pull out their phones and record it? Yet none of that happened.

If the racial slurs were widespread wouldn’t they be documented in some way?

Further, is anyone in a park even this dumb? Even the most avowed racist on earth would have to realize that screaming racial slurs in public would get him publicly shamed and fired, right? Your life is basically over if you’re a white dude screaming racial slurs in public.  

Yet the Adam Jones allegation was the number one story in sports for multiple days, the city of Boston and all Red Sox fans were crushed for being racist, and we only have one single eyewitness other than Jones, and that dude’s story has since been entirely discredited.  

So the only evidence you’re left with is one player saying someone yelled a racial slur at him in a crowded stadium. I’m not saying Adam Jones lied, but do you think Adam Jones has perfect hearing and can pick out individual words in a crowded baseball stadium when everyone is yelling or screaming at the same time? I’ve been on the field in baseball, football, and soccer stadiums all over this country. I can honestly tell you that it’s virtually impossible to hear what individual fans say to you most of the time. (There are clear exceptions when you’re standing right beside the seats, but if that happened wouldn’t you point out the guy yelling the racial slur to security?) Given that eyewitness testimony has been shown to be among the most unreliable in criminal trials isn’t it altogether possible that Jones was mistaken and that no racial slurs were ever yelled at him?

Based on the evidence that seems eminently possible, potentially even more likely than not. Even if yelling a racial slur were a crime, it isn’t, at least not yet, is there any way that a prosecutor would bring a charge in this case?

No way, the evidence just doesn’t support being able to prove that it actually happened. 

Yet the media is so thirsty for racism stories that they just accept it without question. 

Further, was I the only person pointing out how absurd it was that the GOVERNOR OF MASSACHUSETTS APOLOGIZED TO ADAM JONES FOR THIS. 

THE DAMN GOVERNOR!

Has he apologized to every family of a murder victim or rape victim in the state? I’m certain the answer is no. If it happened, that sucks, but is somebody yelling a racial slur at a baseball player really the worst crime in Massachusetts this year? Does the governor really need to apologize?

Of course not.  

This entire story was just absurd. 

And, by the way, I hate racism more than all of you. And MSESPN says you’re all racists. 

Peter writes:

“Would a recruit be more or less likely to choose Florida if Jim McElwain was the dude humping the shark? I’m thinking there’s a case for more likely. Goes from seemingly no personality to….that.”

A recruit would be more likely to pick the Gators. 

But a recruit’s mom would be much less likely to pick the Gators.

BREAKING NEWS: naked shark guy has been identified and he’s a former New York City cop.

So smart of Jim McElwain to pay off this anonymous guy to take the fall for him. 

Jim writes:

“I was reading an article about that South American soccer team that lost almost their entire team from a plane crash and it got me thinking – what would happen if that happened to a popular American sports franchise? What would the fall out be if say the Yankees plane went down on their way back from a west coast road trip? Would it be the biggest story in sports history since OJ? I wasn’t alive when Thurman Munson or Roberto Clemente died, but I’d imagine with today’s social media it would be the biggest and most discussed sports related story we have ever seen.”

This reminds me of the George Costanza scene on “Seinfeld” with Keith Hernandez. 

Honestly, I’d have to log off social media if his happened. There are many parts of social media that are awful, but “Famous Person Dies Social Media” is the worst. Everyone has to compete to be the most grief stricken every time a celebrity dies and every person who dies is the greatest ever. And now an entire team is going to die? I get sick just thinking about what a spectacle MSESPN would turn this into.

I actually think it’s more likely that we have a major terror attack at a sporting event. For instance, what if the 9/11 hijackers had decided to attack four different NFL stadiums simultaneously instead of hitting the Twin Towers, the Pentagon, and eventually crashing in the field in Pennsylvania.

What if they’d waited to hijack planes until Sunday and flown four jetliners directly into four different NFL football games while the games were being played? Can you imagine the number of deaths and the fallout there? I think it would have been more destructive than 9/11 and way more people would have died. Plus, it would have happened on live television.

Hell, what if they’d just waited and flown a single plane into the Super Bowl live on television?

My point is, I think it’s almost impossible for terrorists to avoid the large crowds and media attention that surround major sporting events. That’s why I have zero doubt that at some point in the next twenty years there will be a massive terror attack at a sporting event.  

Kevin writes:

“I’m a Chiefs fan and I hate myself for it, but I need your take on the Chiefs new quarterback Pat Mahomes. Most of my friends love the pick and think we have the next Brett Favre , I think we drafted a loser. Mahomes never beat a Big 12 team with a winning record. My theory is that if you’re a quarterback and can’t win in college, you won’t win a Super Bowl. Obviously you can find exceptions like John Elway, but of the seven active Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, here’s how they did their final year:

Aaron Rodgers 10-2, lost to undefeated USC and lost Holiday Bowl
Drew Brees 8-4, Big 10 Champs, lost Rose Bowl
Tom Brady 10-2, Orange Bowl Champ
Eli Manning 10-3, won Cotton Bowl
Ben Roethlisberger 13-1, GMAC Bowl champ
Joe Flacco 11-4, lost in FCS national champ
Russel Wilson 11-3, Big 10 champ, lost Rose Bowl

Pat Mahomes 5-7, 3-6 Big 12. DNQ for a Bowl

So, settle a debate for me here: can you be the quarterback of a shitty losing college team, but still win a Super Bowl? Winners win, shooters shoot, and losers lose, right?”

Here’s a great Big 12 stat for you — no Big 12 quarterback has ever won a single playoff game. Not one. In the entire history of the conference. The other great quarterback stat? There hasn’t been a first round quarterback drafted from the Big Ten since Kerry Collins in 1995. 

I hate going with absolutes in quarterbacks because as soon as you settle on one you can find an exception, but there are very few quarterbacks in NFL history who played on a losing team in college and then became studs in the NFL. Of course, there are dozens who played on winning college teams and then became busts in the NFL. So I’m not sure that college winning percentage matters a great deal when it comes to wins. But I think you’ve got a decent argument when it comes to losses.  

Jay Cutler is probably the most successful modern era quarterback that you can point to who had a losing record in college and he wasn’t that successful. Honestly, given how much quarterbacks dominate the game of football now it’s almost impossible for a stud quarterback to be on a team with a losing record. That’s even more the case when you consider how hard it is for a Big 5 conference team with a top quarterback to avoid going at least 6-6. I mean, most decent sized teams buy three wins now. So you only have to go 3-6 against decent competition.  

Brad writes:

“Amazon is obviously a big step up from the Twitter deal last year (even though there are only 65MM Amazon Prime subscribers compared to Twitter’s 313MM MAU’s). Maybe this is temporary and Amazon is just looking to get more people to sign up for Amazon Prime, but maybe Amazon is here to save the day in sports rights? Paying $50MM for 10 Thursday Night Football games is 5 times the price Twitter paid last year.

Looking at the existing MNF deal, ESPN airs 17 total games (one doubleheader) and pays $1.9 Billion to do so (~111MM per game). While perhaps not equal in value to a MNF game, $5MM per TNF game is a big difference. This suggests to me that the next MNF contract will get far less than the $1.9 billion it gets now, meaning a lower barrier of entry for the tech giants.

I would love to hear your thoughts on a tech giant joining the sports rights business and what the next 4-5 years may look like, leading up to the expiration of the ESPN/MNF contract? How involved can the Amazons/Facebooks/Apples get in sports rights in the meantime? How profitable will it be for them to do so? What can they do to get ahead and secure a stranglehold on sports right moving forward?”

In order for Amazon to make money off of the existing Monday Night Football package they would need to sign up 19 million more subscribers to Amazon Prime. (That’s rough math of $100 a year per subscriber and it falsely assumes that all that money goes to Amazon Prime programming. It obviously doesn’t since much of that money is based on “free” shipping, which is insanely expensive.)

There is no way this happens which means there’s no way that’s remotely justifiable if the goal is to make money. 

The Monday Night Football package is going to be fascinating because the only way I see the dollar amount going up is if Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, or Netflix get involved. Otherwise I think the NFL will have to take less money or move the package off cable. There is just no possible way that ESPN can afford to pay the same amount they’re paying now, much less more.  

So the NFL better hope that tech companies pay more. Either that or get behind gambling. Because otherwise revenues might not keep climbing. 

Mike writes:

“The Mailbag a few weeks ago concerning the little leaguers not keeping score brought about a few questions between coworkers and myself. We work in NYC for a wall street bank but don’t be fooled the 3 of us are all from Red States. Quick backstory on our thoughts, we all agreed it’s preposterous for youth sports in general to not keep score, there’s a million different reasons to argue this and I am sure all outkick readers know what those reasons are. But this got us thinking, we were curious to dive into the probability of a little league located in a conservative state keeping score verse the probability of a little league located in a snowflake state keeping score. We’re curious what your analysis of this looks like. Also as a former cock strong six year old hitting over the fence homeruns I can say that kid is at least getting some nudes sent his way from older sisters of the opposing team’s players. Chicks will always love velocity and distance, it’s science.”

Here’s my question for you guys, how long until the PC Bromanis out there start to argue that no one should keep score in high school sports?

It’s coming, trust me. 

The argument is going to be that losing makes kids feel bad and why should we reward some kids for winning when it hurts the self esteem of the losers?

And it will definitely be a pussy state that makes this argument. No doubt it comes from the losers in the northeast. 

Hope y’all have great weekends. 

Thanks for supporting Outkick. 

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