College Cliff Notes Week 5

Long winded break downs about tactical advantages are boring.  If I don’t want to read them myself, you don’t either.  Gambling info distilled to its essence with eveything you need to know before you walk to the window for Week 5.

Market Movers

Clemson -10 to -7

Can the Tigers scrape themselves up off the deck after the second half meltdown against Florida St? The road trip north won’t get easier without the services of Sammy Watkins who is doubtful for the game against Boston College with an abdominal virus.

TREND: Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game

Oklahoma St -2 to Texas -2.5

Texas pummeled Ole Miss in Oxford…not sure this qualifies as a marquee win. State has had the Horns number the past 2 years, beating UT by a combined score of 71-42. The Cowboys own a huge coaching edge with the up and comer Mike Gundy vs the aging legend Mack Brown.

TREND: Longhorns are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games.

Texas A&M -11 to -14.5

Vinnie Verno won’t agree with the line move since he’s all over the Pigs at +13.5. Consumer confidence is at an all time low with Arkansas but it’s laughable to see them nearly a 2 TD dog to a team they beat each of the last 2 years.

TREND: Razorbacks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 conference games.

Michigan St -1 to -3

There’s a good chance this game sets football back another 5 years in the Big Ten. The scary part after last weekend, that’s saying something. Advantage Sparty in the ground game and on the defensive side of the ball, advantage Buckeyes with the most electric playmaker on either side in Braxton Miller.

TREND: Buckeyes are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

California -2 to Arizona St -1

Todd Graham isn’t having problems adjusting to life in Tempe. The Sun Devils spread offense already looks crisp while Cal is still desperately seeking an identity. Tell me again how Jeff Tedford still has a job in Strawberry Canyon?

TREND: Golden Bears are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 home games.

UCF -1 to -2.5

When you see an SEC team catching points against a C-USA foe, there’s a reason. Bookmakers were smart about this game, maybe even overthinking the opening number making the Tigers a value side if the line gets to 3.

TREND: Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.

(All Trends courtesy of www.covers.com)

Double Digit favorite I’m putting on upset alert: Nebraska -11.5

Props you won’t find at any sportsbook:

Total Points Scored: Georgia Bulldogs -8 vs the Atlanta Falcons

Total Points Scored: Tennessee Volunteers -5.5 vs Tennessee Titans

SEC Quarterback to throw for the most yards on Saturday

AJ McCarron           10-1
Tyler Wilson            4-1
Aaron Murray          5-2
James Franklin       5-1
Tyler Bray               7-2
Johnny Manziel      5-1
Zach Mettenberger 6-1
Field                        2-1

Projected Lines for Upcoming Marquee SEC games using my power numbers:

10/6:   LSU -3.5 @ Florida
10/13: Alabama -23 @ Missouri, South Carolina +9.5 @ LSU, Mississippi St -4 vs Tennessee
10/20: South Carolina +3 @ Florida, Alabama -20.5 @ Tennessee
10/27: UGA -3 vs Florida ( @ Jacksonville)
11/3:   Alabama -4 @ LSU
11/23: LSU -14 @ Arkansas
11/24: Alabama -26.5 vs Auburn

College football best bets: NC State +2.5 and Duke +2

 

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