College football gambling is back!
I can’t tell you how much excitement the weekly release of college football lines brings me in the fall.
It’s just glorious.
Last season we finished 102-93 for a 52.3% winning percentage on the year.
We were rolling until I collapsed in the bowl season. (After two disastrous years of bowl betting I’m going to dial it back on bowls this year because the bowl season — outside of the playoff games — has become the equivalent of betting NFL preseason games; it’s nearly impossible to know which teams and players care and which teams and players will even play.)
I’ve been posting college football picks on Outkick since 2011, when I started the site. I believe our first year with weekly picks was 2012. Here are the bowl game picks for that year and season tallies.
And while we’re at it, here are the rest of the years final gambling tallies.
We were over .500 in five of the seven years – the two losing years were 47% and 49% winners — and our best winning year was 60%. (In 2015 and 2016 I was on fire.)
My goal, as always, is to hit 55% winners.
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or hate me and want to fade everything that I do — I post my picks Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
With that in mind, there are only two picks this week because there are only two games.
So, of course, we’re going 2-0!
Here they are:
Florida vs. Miami under 48.5, now 47
Florida has an almost entirely remade offensive line, a still erratic quarterback when it comes to decision making, and is facing a deep and difficult Miami defensive front. Meanwhile, the Gator defense should be pretty stout up front and they are facing a brand new quarterback, Jarren Williams, and a brand new head coach, Manny Diaz.
That’s quite a bit of offensive change.
So what happens here?
Well, year two is typically when a coach who will dominate surges in college football — every coach to win an SEC title in the title game era has won at least nine games by year two — but Dan Mullen has the Gators ahead of the curve, coming off a beat down of Michigan in the bowl game to notch the Gators a tenth win and boasting a top ten ranking.
So Mullen’s already sitting pretty even before season two begins.
I think Florida wins, but over seven seems steep, which is why I’d rather focus on both defenses dominating in a steaming hot first game under the lights in a neutral site Orlando venue.
The under is the play.
Arizona at Hawaii, the over 70, now 74
College football’s opening night is going to see us move from a defensive slugfest in Florida to a late night offensive onslaught in Hawaii.
Khalil Tate is 100% healthy and the Hawaii defense is a mess.
That doesn’t bode well for the Rainbows.
Last year Hawaii played two top 25 teams — Fresno State and Utah State and gave up 50 or more to both teams. Meanwhile the Wildcat defense was a mess, unable to stop anyone.
What’s that mean?
While Arizona isn’t a top 25 team like the two teams who hung 50+ on Hawaii last year, they have the potential to climb into the top 25 early in the year thanks to a winnable September slate.
I expect Arizona to be solid this year in the Pac 12 South.
This game doesn’t kick off until 10:30 eastern, meaning we’ll all be staying up late rooting for a double win to start the season.
But there’s going to be so many points raining down, you’ll have your winning bet cashed by the end of the third quarter.
Boom, a 2-0 start to 2019.
It’s time to get rich, kids!