We went 3-4 in conference title game weekend dropping our season record to 81-86. That’s a 49% winning percentage, which would be our first losing season on the Outkick picks in six years of making public picks on the website. (By the way, in addition to being the biggest losers on social media, fade the picks guy — I’M GONNA FADE YOUR PICKS AND MAKE SO MUCH MONEY! — would have a 51% winning percentage if he’d bet against every pick I’d made this year. Which would, you guessed it, still have cost him money since you need to hit 52% to make money gambling when you factor in the vig. So in addition to not having a functional penis — how could you if you just fade someone else’s picks? — fade the picks guy would have lost money too.)
Some men would run from the record this year, but I post it here for all to see every week. Do you know why? Because we’re just a good bowl season away from turning positive on the season and because shooters shoot, baby.
I’m breaking up the bowl game picks between the good bowl games and the bad bowl games because we are still over two weeks away from the good games really getting underway.
But we can still go 12-0 on the bad bowl games before the good bowl games arrive.
As always these lines are courtesy of BetOnline, which release the first college football lines every week during the regular season.
And, remember, you can get 20% off all Outkick gear if you spend $50 or more by using the code “boobs.” Yes, it’s our special Christmas special because I love all of you.
Okay, here comes 12-0:
Oregon vs. Boise State +7.5
Much of bowl season is about discerning interest. Which team do you think is poised to play better? The small conference team with a chance to knock off a big five program in its geographic region or the team whose head coach just left for Florida State?
Come on, this is a no brainer, I think Boise State wins outright.
FAU -22.5 vs. Akron and the over 63
Trust in Lane Kiffin, trust in Lane Kiffin, trust in Lane Kiffin.
FAU’s offense is on absolute fire, having scored at least 30 points in every Conference USA game this year, en route to a 10-0 record in the conference.
Meanwhile in their MAC losses Akron gave up 45 and 48 down the stretch of the season to Toledo, the team most similar to FAU in its conference.
Given that FAU’s players have never been to a bowl before they will all be hyped, and I just don’t see anyway FAU is kept under 45 points.
Boom, the cover and the over hits with ease.
Boston College vs. Iowa, the under 46.5
What happens when two offenses lacking explosive players compete in a bowl game?
They play a boring bowl game.
You don’t even need to watch, nothing exciting is happening in this game. But you can still cash the ticket on the under.
Mizzou -3 vs. Texas and the over 60.5
Regular readers of the picks column know that Mizzou has made us a ton of money this year in the blood bank guarantee games.
And I don’t see any reason why that’s going to stop in this game. Mizzou is just flat out better than Texas and Drew Lock will be the best player on the field.
The over here is my blood bank guarantee of the early bowl season. Just pound it to death. And I love Mizzou to get the win as well.
Purdue vs. Arizona, the over 65
Bowl games are frequently about pacing and thanks to all the possessions here points are going to rain down in abundance in this game.
Get ready for points, points, and more points.
I think we hit 80 total points in this one, which basic math tells me is an easy cover.
Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State -4.5
Every time Virginia Tech has played a good team this year, they’ve been exposed. That’s because Virginia Tech, while well coached, is still a year away from being a top contender.
Meanwhile this is Mike Gundy’s top team and he’s disappointed this was their ceiling, a 9-3 team playing a bowl game that no one cares about.
And I think he’s going to want this team to go out in bowl game style with a big win.
Which they will.
Washington State -2 vs. Michigan State
This is a bet on my guy Mike Leach and also a bet against Michigan State, who I simply don’t think is very good. Take away the storm delay against Penn State and I think Michigan State loses by double digits to every good team they play all year.
I’m not sure that Washington State is great, but I do think they’ll beat the Spartans by a touchdown.
Boom, you win.
Louisville -6.5 vs. Mississippi State
Lamar Jackson’s performance in 2017 was overshadowed by a disappointing 8-4 season for the Cardinals. But if you actually look into the numbers here you’ll see that much of Louisville’s failure had nothing to do with offense and everything to do with defense. In fact, Lamar Jackson was still spectacular and so was this Petrino offense.
Louisville lost games despite scoring 25, 32, and, wait for it, 42!, points.
So I don’t have any doubt about Louisville’s ability to put up points, especially against a Mississippi State team without the ability to answer itself thanks to the Nick Fitzgerald injury.
And I also think Mississippi State’s offense has no real shot to post a boat load of points against Louisville.
Which means Louisville takes this one by double digits.
Memphis -3.5 vs. Iowa State and the over 66.5
Part of me deeply appreciates the decision of Memphis to just totally give up on defense and go balls to the wall with offense.
And I have zero doubt that’s exactly what we are going to see in the bowl game too.
Just offensive explosion after offensive explosion.
I think it will resemble Oklahoma State’s game against Iowa State.
So buckle up and enjoy the ride.
In the end you’ll find yourself 12-0 and ready for the big bowl games to get rolling.
I’ll have those big bowl game picks up next week, but for now, get your bets in on these games.