There are Sunday cruises and there are rollercoaster rides when it comes to monitoring line movement. Saturday’s game in Columbia between UGA and Missouri is drawing a ton of interest in the betting markets and will be one of the biggest volume games for sportsbooks this weekend. At some of the sharpest offshore books, UGA opened as modest 3 pt chalk before being bet over the key number to 3.5. However, prices aren’t static and yesterday a deluge of Tiger money drove the price as low as 1.5 before the market consensus settled at 2.
What could be leading such a charge on the Tigers you ask? Trust me when I say a sports syndicate anchored by Brad Pitt, Sheryl Crow, and Sam Walton wandering around Vegas dropping 6 digit sums isn’t the reason. Missouri has only been a home underdog 4 times since 2006 but their record is hardly anything to get excited about in those games going 1-3 against the spread. UGA as road favorite you ask? Mark Richt is 17-12-1 in that role including 3 wins as a road fav against Ole Miss (-10), Tennessee (-2.5), and Georgia Tech (-4.5) last year. The Dawgs lone ATS loss away from Athens last season came in Nashville against Vandy as 11.5 pt chalk.
I definitely believe Missouri is more than capable of attacking the UGA defense under the leadership of a talented QB in James Franklin (no, not Vanderbilt’s head coach). However you bet your ass I still can’t sign off on Coach Pinkel getting this one done until I see how the black and gold adjust to life in the rugged SEC. UGA definitely looked sluggish against Buffalo but that’s no reason to jump off the SEC east favorites just yet. This is a line that bears watching as we approach gameday and just one instance of bettors jockeying for the best market number. To be honest, I’m still hoping a powderpuff game between the two schools student newspapers breaks out at halftime and I’ll make the Red and Black much more than a 3 pt chalk.
Futures are the closest thing Vegas has to a black box of sports betting. They’re the markets that create the most intrigue throughout the season since the betting public itches to find that long shot value and improbable payout. College football, unlike most sports, historically isn’t kind to underdogs because as we all know it’s dominated by the elite sides who typically start in front and finish there. Each week this fall we’ll be updating the numbers and making the casual gambler more informed as yall trek to Vegas to plunk down a few bucks. For our purposes, we’ll be tracking futures at LVH (formerly the Hilton), Wynn Las Vegas, and MGM Mirage for a small cross section of what the town has to offer.
Theoretical Hold: The lower the hold, the better it is for the player. However, just because one book has lower hold than another doesn’t mean every team will come at a better price so do your homework.
|Futures as of 9/5|