Las Vegas Futures Updates

There are Sunday cruises and there are rollercoaster rides when it comes to monitoring line movement. Saturday’s game in Columbia between UGA and Missouri is drawing a ton of interest in the betting markets and will be one of the biggest volume games for sportsbooks this weekend. At some of the sharpest offshore books, UGA opened as modest 3 pt chalk before being bet over the key number to 3.5. However, prices aren’t static and yesterday a deluge of Tiger money drove the price as low as 1.5 before the market consensus settled at 2.

What could be leading such a charge on the Tigers you ask? Trust me when I say a sports syndicate anchored by Brad Pitt, Sheryl Crow, and Sam Walton wandering around Vegas dropping 6 digit sums isn’t the reason. Missouri has only been a home underdog 4 times since 2006 but their record is hardly anything to get excited about in those games going 1-3 against the spread.  UGA as road favorite you ask? Mark Richt is 17-12-1 in that role including 3 wins as a road fav against Ole Miss (-10), Tennessee (-2.5), and Georgia Tech (-4.5) last year. The Dawgs lone ATS loss away from Athens last season came in Nashville against Vandy as 11.5 pt chalk.

I definitely believe Missouri is more than capable of attacking the UGA defense under the leadership of a talented QB in James Franklin (no, not Vanderbilt’s head coach). However you bet your ass I still can’t sign off on Coach Pinkel getting this one done until I see how the black and gold adjust to life in the rugged SEC. UGA definitely looked sluggish against Buffalo but that’s no reason to jump off the SEC east favorites just yet.  This is a line that bears watching as we approach gameday and just one instance of bettors jockeying for the best market number. To be honest, I’m still hoping a powderpuff game between the two schools student newspapers breaks out at halftime and I’ll make the Red and Black much more than a 3 pt chalk.

 

Futures are the closest thing Vegas has to a black box of sports betting. They’re the markets that create the most intrigue throughout the season since the betting public itches to find that long shot value and improbable payout. College football, unlike most sports, historically isn’t kind to underdogs because as we all know it’s dominated by the elite sides who typically start in front and finish there. Each week this fall we’ll be updating the numbers and making the casual gambler more informed as yall trek to Vegas to plunk down a few bucks. For our purposes, we’ll be tracking futures at LVH (formerly the Hilton), Wynn Las Vegas, and MGM Mirage for a small cross section of what the town has to offer.

Things to keep in mind when betting futures:

 

Theoretical Hold: The lower the hold, the better it is for the player. However, just because one book has lower hold than another doesn’t mean every team will come at a better price so do your homework.

Curiosities:
·         Houston sits at 150-1 at MGM-Mirage despite an embarrassing loss to Texas St as 36.5 pt favorites. I’d be as likely to bet the Cougars as my parents were on me scoring 1600 on the SAT’s
·         Southern Miss is 250-1 at MGM-Mirage after losing to Nebraska. Playing in C-USA, one has to imagine the odds of the Golden Eagles getting a shot in New Orleans are closer to 5000-1 and that’s even if Brett Favre were to come back and take snaps.
·         Baylor moved from 300-1 to 100-1 at LVH (formerly Las Vegas Hilton) after their dismantling of SMU. Nick Florence isn’t going to make those in Waco forget RG3 but it clearly showed the cupboard isn’t completely bare for Art Briles
·         Boston College and Washington St are both listed at 9999-1 at LVH. That’s the bookmakers polite way of saying you may as well burn your money since you won’t be cashing this ticket.
·         After only 1 week, Wynn Las Vegas removed Kentucky, California, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Boston College, Houston, NC State, So Miss, Washington St, Colorado, Hawaii, Syracuse, and UNLV from their betting board indicating Johnny Avello gives them the same odds of winning the Sears Trophy as the Astros of a MLB crown: ZERO
Sides that still offer value:
Oregon 9-1, Georgia 15-1, West Virginia 25-1, Florida 75-1, BYU 200-1
The three casinos in order below: Wynn, Las Vegas Hilton, and MGM-Mirage

Futures as of 9/5
Theoretical Hold 35% 12% 40%
WYNN WYNN LVH              
USC 3 3 11/5
ALABAMA 5 7/2 4
LSU 5 7 5
FLORIDA ST 7 10 8
OKLAHOMA 8 15 8
OREGON 9 7 6
GEORGIA 14 15 6
ARKANSAS 20 40 12
TEXAS 24 30 15
NOTRE DAME 28 40 18
SOUTH CAROLINA 30 30 25
VIRGINIA TECH 30 50 28
WEST VIRGINIA 30 25 30
CLEMSON 35 35 40
NEBRASKA 35 50 35
WISCONSIN 45 50 20
MICHIGAN ST 60 50 22
TCU 60 100 100
KANSAS ST 65 100
FLORIDA   75 50 50
OKLAHOMA ST 75 50 60
MIAMI (FL) 85 45
MISSISSIPPI ST 85 200 175
MISSOURI 85 500 80
CINCINNATI 100 1000 300
FIELD 100 100 75
BAYLOR 125 100 125
TENNESSEE 125 100 100
TEXAS A&M 125 500 50
AUBURN 150 500 30
MICHIGAN 150 100 14
SOUTH FLORIDA 150 500
TEXAS TECH 150
UCLA  150 500
BYU 175 100 200
LOUISVILLE 175 300
ARIZONA 200 500 200
ARIZONA ST 200 1000 100
IOWA 200 500 100
MISSISSIPPI   200 300
PURDUE 200
STANFORD 200 75 125
UTAH 200 100 200
VIRGINIA   200 1000
WASHINGTON 200 500 125
ILLINOIS 250 1000 200
OREGON ST 250
RUTGERS 250
WAKE FOREST 300 5000
BOISE ST 500 1000 125
GEORGIA TECH 500 500 100
NEVADA  500 400
MARYLAND 1000
BOSTON COLLEGE 9999 250
CALIFORNIA 1000 150
NC ST 500
WASHINGTON ST 9999
HOUSTON 150
PITTSBURGH 200
SOUTHERN MISS 250
NORTHWESTERN 250

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