Last week we went 6-8 running our season total to 91-71 which is a 56% winning percentage for the Outkick picks on the year. We were 5-2 after Thursday and Friday and then had a disaster of a Saturday, going 1-6, including a late touchdown pass from USC against Notre Dame that I’m still bitter about.
Regardless, if anyone is actually fading the picks — as opposed to just Tweeting about fading them — they are getting absolutely demolished this year. In fact, fade the picks guy has virtually disappeared as we have ground him into total oblivion with a long winning streak this year.
Unfortunately we’ve finished the regular season so there aren’t that many more picks to add this week or, honestly, for the bowl season either.
So getting to 60% will be a major challenge.
But at least you’ve all locked in some good profits for the year and hopefully you’ve had fun following the gambling picks this year as well.
I’ve got eight more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 8-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won so far this year and buy my new book which is out in bookstores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $17 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hardback book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself.
If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
It’s $99 and makes a great gift.
Stop being so cheap and sign up today.
All of our Outkick VIPs have now received their signed copies of the books. (And if you haven’t received your copy email email@example.com and let them know your name and your address. We did have some signed copies of the book bounce back because addresses didn’t match).
The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
Utah +5 vs. Washington, now Utah +5.5
This is a bet on Kyle Whittingham as an underdog more than anything else.
Whittingham, I believe, might be the most underrated coach in major college football. He’s 3-1 against the spread as an underdog to Washington — I know, they lost 21-7 earlier this year which is the one loss — but I think his team bounces back here.
Furthermore Washington is just 3-9 against the number so far this year and we’re talking about a low scoring game which makes 5 even a higher number than normal.
Finally, Utah has won seven of their past eight games and is 6-2 against the spread during that time.
I see this as a field goal either way which means you win with ease.
MTSU -1 vs UAB, now MTSU -1.5
So let me get this straight — last week MTSU won by 24 over UAB and now they’re playing again, the very next week, at home once more for MTSU and the Blue Raiders are a one point favorite?
Give me MTSU to win once again.
This is just too easy.
Especially with the way Rick Stockstill is playing at quarterback and with the run MTSU has been on since mid-October — the only loss was to Kentucky in a game MTSU could have easily won.
I don’t think this one will be close.
MTSU has covered five straight, make it six on Saturday.
Memphis +3.5 vs. UCF and the over 64.5, now Memphis -3 and 65
Earlier this year UCF outlasted Memphis 31-30 in a driving rainstorm after Memphis gave up a 30-14 lead and didn’t score in the second half.
Both of these teams will lean on their rushing attacks and I don’t think either team will be able to stop the other all day long as a result.
But I like Memphis’s quarterback situation when they have to throw on third down better than I do UCF’s in the wake of the McKenzie Milton injury.
So give me Memphis to cover and the over to hit with ease.
Boom, a double AAC win.
Northwestern +14.5 vs. Ohio State
Here’s the deal, Northwestern hasn’t lost by over 14 points all season long.
Do I think the Wildcats are a great team? No way. They went 0-3 out of conference losing to Akron!, Duke, and Notre Dame.
But do I think they can keep it close against Ohio State? I do.
Remember, Ohio State was just 3-7 against the spread in its final ten games and I don’t think we can overreact to one game against Michigan, as impressive as that one game may have been.
Here’s the other thing, running up the score, even if possible, really doesn’t matter for Ohio State here. If Oklahoma or Georgia win the Buckeyes aren’t going to make the playoff. They don’t need to impress voters by blowing out Northwestern, they just need to win and then they also need Oklahoma and Georgia to lose.
That’s the only route to the playoff for Ohio State.
So give me the Fighting Pat Fitzgerald’s to lose, but cover.
Texas vs. Oklahoma, the over 78, now 77.5
In the past four weeks Oklahoma has given up the following point totals: 46, 47, 40 and 56
They’ve also scored 66, 45, 52, 51, 51, 48, 55, and 59 in their past eight games and, oh by the way, they played against Texas and the teams scored 93 total points in a 48-45 loss.
Could things change and this game go under the number?
But all of the evidence points towards the over hitting with ease and both teams are playing on a fast track inside a dome.
Which is why the over is my blood bank guarantee in this game.
Georgia +13 vs. Alabama, now Georgia +13
Alabama is the first team since the 1888 Yale Bulldogs to beat 12 straight opponents by twenty or more.
What an unbelievable stat.
That was so long ago the forward pass wasn’t even legal.
Not only has Alabama been dominant, they’ve also gone 8-4 against the spread.
But here’s my issue with giving up 13 points to Georgia, I think it’s just too many points. That’s particularly the case when I believe this will be a stadium that leans Georgia — probably at least 60-40 — and the Bulldogs have infinitely more at stake in this game than Alabama does.
Georgia knows if they win they are in the playoff and if they lose they’re playing a game that’s infinitely less important.
Remember what happened in last year’s SEC title game — Georgia rolled into a rematch with Auburn and most people expected for Auburn to beat Georgia again. Instead, the Bulldogs were absolutely dominant winning 28-7 and nearly grabbing a national championship two games later in the same stadium.
I think Alabama will win, but needing the Tide to cover by two touchdowns against what might be the second best team in college football is just too high bar to reach.
Which is why I’m taking Georgia to keep it under two touchdowns and cover here.
Clemson vs. Pittsburgh, the over 53, now 52.5
Last week I told you to take the over in South Carolina at Clemson and Jake Bentley rolled into Clemson and posted 510 yards passing en route to 600 total yards and 35 points.
This week I think Clemson’s defense will be better, but I also think the over hits with ease because Pittsburgh won’t be able to stop this Clemson offense.
So put Clemson down for 52 and Pittsburgh down for 21.
And instead of having to worry about a massive line to cover, you can just enjoy the points.
There you have it kids, we’re going 8-0.