We went 5-5 last weekend and had three of the most brutal beats I’ve seen in a long time in rapid succession during the afternoon: first Arkansas scored a touchdown with 18 seconds left to cost us the Alabama cover by .5 points, then Mizzou couldn’t play in the rain and blew a big lead at South Carolina, which ultimately culminated in a dropped interception before a made field goal to end the game and cost us that win by a point, and then, as the afternoon capper, Florida picked off an LSU pass and returned it for a touchdown with 1:30 left — when taking a knee would have ended the game — to cost us the under. All three of those losses were brutal and I still feel like we were on the right side. (We also lost the Syracuse game in overtime as well, but I’m not even counting that). And even with all that bad mojo working against us the blood bank guarantee still cashed with ease and we finished even on the day.
The results pushed us to 43-30 on the year, right at 59% winners on the season so so far.
I’ve got 14 more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 14-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won and please buy my new book which is out in stores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $16 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hard back book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself.
If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
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The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
Central Florida -4.5 at Memphis & the over 77.5, now Central Florida -4.5 and 81
I have watched every Central Florida game and every Memphis game this season — I know, I really do need better hobbies — and I just don’t see any way Memphis wins this game. The Tigers have been way too up and down this season — losing at Navy and at Tulane — while Central Florida has been a juggernaut no matter who the competition is, winning every game by 20 or more.
Last year these teams played twice and Central Florida won 40-13 and 62-55.
Pull up your sleeves boys and girls, the blood bank guarantee here is Central Florida -4.5. I also love the over here and it’s already run all the way out to 81! from the 77.5 that I gave out on Monday.
Tennessee +16.5 vs. Auburn and the under 47, now Tennessee +15.5 and the under 47
This may be crazy thinking, but I don’t think Auburn is very good and I think Tennessee will keep this game relatively close and low scoring into the fourth quarter.
Here’s my rationale — first, Auburn hasn’t scored that many points on any one so far this season. Against FBS opponents Auburn has scored 21, 21, 34 — against Arkansas so I’m not sure that total even counts, 24, and 9. That’s an average of 22 points a game. I don’t think think Jarrett Stidham is a great fit for this Gus Malzahn offense and I think the Gus Bus has a couple of flat tires.
Second, Tennessee is not very good offensively, but their defense hasn’t been that atrocious when you adjust for turnovers and don’t just look at the score. (The Vols gave up 387 yards to Florida and 441 yards to Georgia. Those aren’t atrocious numbers defensively. West Virginia did put up 547 yards, however, if you want to build a case for Auburn having a chance to bust out.)
Third, and this is key, Tennessee is coming off a bye week and Auburn is playing their seventh straight week of football. This means Tennessee should be rested and well prepared for the Tigers.
Fourth, this is the dreaded eleven in the morning and everyone is hung over as hell and no one actually wants to get up and go to the game SEC kickoff. As if that weren’t enough, Auburn has already lost two SEC games so who really cares about this game that much? It’s not like the stakes are that high for either team. So I don’t think the game environment is going to be that wild or crazy.
The result? I think we get an ugly, low scoring game which Auburn ends up winning 24-13.
Meaning you cover and the under hits.
Georgia -6.5 at LSU, the under 50, now Georgia -7.5 and 50.5
I know I swore off betting against LSU in big games, but here I am again, betting against LSU in a big game.
The LSU offense has not shown up in the past two big SEC games — against Auburn and Florida. In both of those games LSU has averaged right at 20 points.
Based on this evidence I don’t think LSU is going to score more than 21 against Georgia either.
So the question I have to ask myself is this, do I feel good about Georgia’s ability to score at least 28 on LSU?
I know LSU has a good defense, but so far Georgia has scored at least 38 on everyone and they have given up an average of 15.6 in their games. So if LSU scores what they’ve averaged in big SEC games and Georgia scores ten points less than they’ve averaged what do I get?
Georgia wins by a touchdown and the under hits.
That’s two wins, baby.
Michigan State at Penn State -13.5 and the over 56.5, now Penn State -13.5 and 54.5
This feels to me like a James Franklin special.
At least once a year in James Franklin’s coaching tenure a team rolls into Happy Valley (or Vandy before that) and gets demolished.
I think Michigan State is that team this year.
Penn State has had two weeks to get over the crushing defeat to Ohio State and they have a last second loss to avenge at Michigan State from last season.
The result? I think Penn State boat races Michigan State, posting 45 points and holding the Spartans to 21.
Meaning you get an easy cover and an easy over.
Ole Miss at Arkansas, the over 72, now 70.5
What happens when the two worst defenses in the SEC meet up?
I could spend a decent amount of time breaking down these numbers or you can just take the over and believe me when I say both teams will score 35 points and the over hits with ease.
Mizzou at Bama -28 and the over 74.5, now Bama -28 and 75
I’m torn on this game, honestly.
Because a part of me thinks Nick Saban being mad that his defense gave up 31 points against Arkansas means the defense is going to come out and stifle Mizzou, which would mean the over is impossible to hit. (Even Bama isn’t going to score 75 by itself. Especially not because a beat down like this would mean Tua is benched early in the second half).
But the other part of me thinks Mizzou will just go balls to the wall and try and score as many points as they can knowing they have no real chance to win this football game, which will mean a ton of possessions for both teams.
Ultimately I think taking both sides guarantees you at least a split and gives you a good shot at winning both.
Remember, Mizzou scored 29 on Georgia; this is a pretty damn good offense with a great quarterback. Plus, Mizzou is very good at running the football as well. They should score 24 on Bama. That means Bama needs to score 53 to cover, which I’m confident they’ll do. (Mizzou has given up 37 to Purdue, 43 to Georgia, and 37 to South Carolina in their past three games).
My prediction in this game? Bama 56 Mizzou 24.
Florida -7 at Vanderbilt and the under 49, now Florida -7 and 50.5
This Gator defense is for real.
I suspect Florida will roll into town and slowly suffocate the Commodores on offense, eventually strangling them out via a 31-14 type score.
That means we hit on the Gators and the under.
After watching what the Commodores did against South Carolina, I just have no faith in the Vandy offensive or defensive lines to hold up against the Gators for four quarters.
Texas A&M -2.5 at South Carolina
I’m adding this pick on Friday morning.
The more I look at this game the more I like the Aggies to win by over a field goal.
So this makes 14 picks total.
Boom, 14-0 is coming, kids.