Hate to brag, but we went 7-1 in the conference title games and the final week of the bowl games. Our only loss was Baylor at West Virginia, that close to perfection.
That ran our season record to 92-68, which works out to a winning percentage of 58%. Combining that with last year’s 60% win rate Outkick is just flat out printing money for you guys. Go spend your winnings at outkickgear.com where you can get 20% off all orders of $60 or more.
Honestly, and I’m not even kidding about this, the picks have gone so well the past two years I’ve got gambling people contacting me saying I should be charging you guys for these picks because I’m crushing all the guys who do charge for picks. Hell, some of those guys are probably stealing my picks now and charging for them. But I’m not going to charge you for the picks.
Because Santa Clay is coming to town and he’s a one man economic stimulus package, just crushing bookies and offshores and Vegas sports books one game at a time.
How does Donald Trump make America great again? Simple, by telling people to bet these bowl games.
Merry Christmas, motherfuckers, here is Outkick’s bowl gambling guide.
(By the way, I will be at the Alabama-Washington game in Atlanta and then also at the college football playoff game down in Tampa. So stay plugged in for an announcement of where you guys can come hang with me and grab a few beers in both cities.)
With that in mind, here we go with 14 winning picks:
Vandy vs. N.C. State, the over 44
This over is flat out stealing. I’m not even kidding about this, like the Grinch coming out of the hills and taking all the presents in Whoville. The Vandy offense has come alive and this line still presumes that Vanderbilt’s offense is awful. Remember how I told you that UT at Vandy the over was a blood bank guarantee? And we hit the over by halftime?
Well, we’re starting the bowl season with a blood bank guarantee on the day after Christmas. I’m telling you right now, put every dollar you have left from Christmas on the over in this game.
Just give thanks to Santa Clay when it cashes.
South Carolina +10.5 vs. South Florida
We’ve got a team losing its coach vs. a highly motivated South Carolina team in a bowl game in Birmingham where the only people paying attention will be gamblers.
And this line is just way, way too high.
You’re giving me an SEC team against an American Athletic Conference team and you’re giving me 10.5 points? This is too good to be true. And unlike everyone else, we don’t look gift horses in the mouth or doubt our good fortune. When things are too good to be true we put twice as much money down as normal.
And get filthy rich.
Arkansas +7 vs. Virginia Tech
This is an easy betting decision because what does Bret Bielema do? He follows up an awful loss that makes you question whether or not he should still be the head coach with a win you don’t expect.
That’s why Arkansas football fandom is like dating a crazy chick who is amazing in bed. You have no idea whether you’re about to get the best sex of your life or wake up with your penis cut off.
The Razorbacks win outright, but you don’t even need that, you’ve got the Hogs +7.
Nebraska vs. Tennessee, the over 61
Tennessee can’t defend anyone and by the time this game kicks off Butch Jones will have spent a month on Google searching his name in Google News and silently weeping as he reads late night articles about his program. Seriously, #dbap, Butch.
Meanwhile Nebraska is the quintessential overrated Big Ten team in a bowl game. The Vols should win, but I’m not betting on Butch so I’ll save you all the misery of doing so as well by simply taking the over and cashing that winning ticket with ease.
Michigan-Florida State, the under 54
Neither team is scoring more than 21 points in this game.
Quick math tells me that’s 42 points, which is a lot less than 54.
This means you hit the under by double digits.
LSU -3 vs. Louisville, the over 60
LSU should have beaten Wisconsin, Auburn, and Florida which means the Tigers should be 11-1 this year and potentially in the playoff. Instead, they’re playing Louisville, a team that just lost to Houston and Kentucky to end its season.
The Louisville defense couldn’t stop Kentucky, which means LSU will run all over them. Meanwhile the LSU defense is pretty stout, but there will be a ton of possessions in this game so the over hits with ease.
Bang, our first double win of bowl season, LSU and the over. (I think this game will look a lot like LSU-Texas A&M, FYI).
Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech, the over 60.5
Here comes Santa Clay, here comes Santa Clay, right down Santa Clay lane, both teams go over 30.
The over hits with ease.
Iowa vs. Florida, the under 40
My mother-in-law asked me what I wanted for Christmas and I said, “Nothing, Jim McElwain’s coaching Florida and I’ve got the under in the Iowa-Florida game. I’ve got all the gifts I need already.”
She had no idea what I was talking about.
But you guys do! (Which is why I love all of you. And by “all of you,” I mean like 8% of you.)
USC vs. Penn State +7 and the over 62.5
You know how some times Vegas gets stubborn and refuses to acknowledge a team is good? This year that team is Penn State. The Nittany Lions are a goddamn covering machine and the lines remain insanely aligned against them.
So we just keep winning.
Penn State covers.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have scored 38 or more points in every game since they beat Ohio State. That run is going to continue against USC, who will also score at least 30. And, what do you know, that’s over 62.5 points!
Get rich, kids, it’s the granddaddy of them all, a Rose Bowl double winner!
Auburn vs. Oklahoma -3.5
Auburn is not good. This is an important detail to remember when they’re playing a good team. Oklahoma is a good team. Plus, Bob Stoops loves to beat SEC teams because I’m convinced he strips down to nothing at all and puts these games on the big screren in a dark room while he does a nice slow stroke.
The Sooners…big. (Not Steve McNair big, but close.)
Bama -15 vs. Washington
I honestly feel bad for Washington fans.
They’re traveling all the way across the country convinced that their team is good and Bama is just going to lobotomize them in front of a home crowd in the dome.
All these nice people from Seattle are going to have toothless Bama fans screaming “Roll Tide,” in their nightmares for months.
This must have been what it was like for all those immigrants who left the east coast for the west and ended up living in Nebraska instead. Their wives had to be like, “We left for this, Oswald! A sod house in the middle of a flat prairie? I knew I should have never listened to you and married the button maker in Philadelphia instead. People will always need buttons!”
You think your life is rough, imagine trying to get your wife to bang you in a sod house in a Nebraska prairie when it’s -15 outside and the snow is past the roof your dirt house.
Washington is a pro style offense like USC, except not as good as USC.
Alabama manhandled USC.
And they’re going to do the same to Washington.
Put simply, Nick Saban doesn’t lose to a pro style offense. The last time he did was 2011, and then he didn’t let that team cross the fifty yard line. Sorry for reminding you, LSU fans.
Bama by three touchdowns.
Ohio State vs. Clemson, the over 60.5
The Tiger offense has found its groove, but unfortunately that has led to the Tiger defense losing its groove. The result? Lots of points. I’m tempted to take Clemson +3.5 here, but my faith in Urban Meyer is too great. I just keep asking myself, do you really think Dabo is beating Urban with a month to prepare for a game.
And I just can’t see it.
So take the over instead and get rich that way.
There you have it, kids, we’re going 14-0.
Merry Christmas from Santa Clay.