During the regular season I gave you 139 picks with the fervent hope that I would go 139-0. Instead I went 66-73 on those picks and lost money on the season, just like you guys. That’s 47.5%. That’s not very good. But now it’s holiday/bowl season, a time when everything can be redeemed — including your long lost relationship with your estranged Uncle Art and including my losing gambling record.
When at first the breaks go against you, don’t give up, put on more steam!
That’s why I’m doing the incredible — I’m going 18-0 this bowl season.
Yep, I’ve got 18 picks that are guaranteed to make your holiday season spectacular.
Like my grandma always said, it’s time to get rich or die trying.
Let’s get rich, here we go:
Arkansas -5 vs. Texas and the under of 46
Texas can’t score in a whorehouse and Arkansas’s passing attack isn’t bad for a quarterback without arms. So what’s going to happen in this one? A ton of running plays and almost no points. I love the under here. Arkansas wins 20-13.
After this win Razorback fans will email Outkick demanding that the Razorbacks be the preseason number one team in the country.
USC-7 vs. Nebraska
I’m not even sure who the hell is coaching Nebraska in this game, but I guarantee you he won’t call anyone a pussy in his post-game speech. (I looked it up after writing this sentence. It’s someone named Barney Cotton. Ask yourself this, are you comfortable betting on a bowl game with one team being led by a guy named Barney Cotton? Here’s his bio.) If you think the Cornhuskers are going to show up and play well under Barney Cotton, you’re a damn fool. Meanwhile USC is sneakily dominant against mediocre teams. The Trojans are going to destroy Nebraska.
Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Clemson
Fun fact, do you know the only four teams in the country to be two point or greater favorites in every game this season? Alabama, Oregon, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Somehow the Sooners lost four games and Georgia lost three. So which Sooners team shows up against Clemson, the one that lost to every top 25 team it played or the one that beat the other eight teams by an average of three touchdowns? I think it’s the latter. Put simply, I’m not a believer in Clemson.
Notre Dame vs. LSU -7 and the under of 52.5
After starting 6-0 Notre Dame finished 1-5. But it was the best 1-5 run in the history of college football. Did you see those losses? The Irish just narrowly missed making my playoff. Meanwhile LSU’s out here bludgeoning teams with fifty rushes a game. LSU should win this game by three touchdowns. The only problem? LSU can’t score three touchdowns in a single game.
So I think the Bayou Bengals win by double digits in a game that finishes something like 20-10. I love the under here.
Ole Miss +3.5 vs. TCU and the under of 57
Historically what happens when high powered Big 12 offenses go up against good SEC defenses in bowl games? The offenses get shut down. That’s why I love the under and Ole Miss here. Ole Miss has a great defense and has had nearly a month to scout TCU. The Rebels have played one bad game all year. I think they beat TCU outright.
Auburn -6 vs. Wisconsin
When last we saw Wisconsin they were surrendering 59 points to Ohio State. (I bet on Wisconsin -4, which means I lost this game by 63 points against the number. Fuck me.) When last we saw Auburn they were surrendering 55 points to Alabama. So while the over seems like a decent bet here, there’s really only one play — it’s Auburn -6. The 2014 season has been a pretty big disappointment for the Tigers. Beating up on a Big Ten opponent will help set the stage for the debut of Malzahn and Muschamp, a new buddy film on airing on the SEC Network next season.
Baylor -2.5 vs. Michigan State
One of Outkick’s top rules for gambling is this — take Baylor. Especially when they’re playing Michigan State, the only team in the top 15 without a single top 25 win all season. I think Baylor should have been in the playoff. I’m not sure that Michigan State is a top ten team. So we’re rolling with the Bears.
Mizzou -5 vs. Minnesota
I’m going to be honest with y’all, I’m betting on Mizzou so all the Mizzou fans on Twitter will shut the fuck up about me always betting against Mizzou.
Oregon -9 vs. Florida State and the under of 72.5
Let’s start with the under, are you kidding me 72.5? If this game goes over 72.5 in regulation I will gladly take that loss. I think both defenses will play better in this game than expected. The problem for FSU is this — they’re just not that good. Last year’s FSU team would beat this year’s FSU team by two touchdowns or more. For the past six weeks I’ve been saying that FSU will win every close game and eventually get blown out when they step up their level of competition.
Well, here we go. The Ducks win 42-21.
(One other bit of info, there will be hardly any FSU fans at this game. I think it will end up a virtual Duck home game.)
Alabama -9 vs. Ohio State
The last time Nick Saban coached a game against Urban Meyer Saban almost killed him. This is not even hyperbole. Meyer had to be hospitalized. Eventually Urban fled the SEC. Now you’ve given Nick Saban nearly a month to prepare for a third string Buckeye quarterback. What’s more, a porous Ohio State defense is going to have to match up with the most explosive Tide offense of the Saban era. No one’s even talking about it, but remember how much Lane Kiffin hates Urban Meyer. I’m setting even odds that Kiffin does the suck it pelvic thrust at the Ohio State sideline after a 75 yard Amari Cooper touchdown.
This game will be close for a while but then the dual hammers of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry will pound the Buckeyes into submission. The Tide wins by two touchdowns and Meyer eats cold pizza on his golf cart while Saban will already be watching tape on Oregon in the post-game press conference.
Vols -3 vs. Iowa and the over of 51
Tennessee’s offense will return to form against a Big Ten opponent, posting big numbers as a prelude to a 2015 season when the Vols should contend for the SEC East crown. I still believe in Dobbs, even if Tennessee’s offensive line is going to be five guys that Butch Jones finds at the Hooters on Jacksonville Landing.
Will anyone from Iowa even travel to this game? Tennessee fans are ecstatic to make this trip. Remember all those Citrus Bowl jokes? Right now Vol fans would trade their first born — they all have eight kids in the mountain hollers so this isn’t as big of a deal as it sounds — for a trip to the Citrus Bowl.
UCLA vs. Kansas State and the under of 59.5
Bill Snyder will confuse a UCLA team that really doesn’t care about playing in this bowl game. If this sounds like a bitter opening sentence it’s because I still haven’t forgiven UCLA for getting trounced at home by Stanford. I HATE YOU BRUINS.
Did any team in the country get more attention for being 9-3 than Kansas State? The Wildcats got a one point win at Oklahoma, otherwise they lost to the three top 25 teams they played.
I think UCLA wins, but it’s a low scoring game.
Here we go, 18-0 is coming, baby.