There’s no way to sugarcoat this, last week’s picks were a disaster. We followed up an 8-2 weekend with a 2-8 weekend to drop our season record to 85-78, good for a 52.1% winning percentage.
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks every Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Okay, let’s bounce back by going 9-0 this weekend.
Oregon vs. Utah -6.5 and the under 47
Defense, defense, and then some more defense in this game, which may well have weather issues as well.
These are two of the two best defenses in the Pac 12 and I expect both to play incredibly stout in this Friday night title game.
But who will dominate the game more?
Since their loss to USC, here’s what the Utes have allowed to Pac 12 opponents: 13, 7, 3, 0, 28, 3, 7, and 15.
That’s an average of 9.5 points per opponent.
And there were some really good offenses in the Pac 12 this year.
The only anomaly in that list was giving up 28 to Washington. Otherwise this defense has shut everyone down. I feel like Utah is going to completely dominate this game from start to finish and like the Utes to win something like 24-13.
Which means you should hop on the Utes and the under to start off your conference title game winning streak.
Baylor +9 vs. Oklahoma
The last time these two teams played the spread was about the same and Baylor blew a 25 point lead en route to losing a close game. (But still covering).
I just think this number is way too high when you consider how Oklahoma has played down the stretch. The Sooners were fortunate to beat Iowa State, Baylor and TCU.
I think OU probably gets a win here, but I don’t think they do it by over a touchdown.
Give me the Bears to cover here.
FAU -7.5 vs. UAB
Lane Kiffin is in the process of interviewing for jobs all over the country. Will he be the next coach at Ole Miss, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida State, no one knows!
But what we do know is this — FAU covers.
Kiffin is on track to win his second Conference USA title in three years. His team is 9-3 and has won five straight, covering four out of five in the process.
That continues against UAB, which is 9-3, but a bit of a paper tiger.
Hop on the Lane Train for a final covering ride in Boca Raton before he departs for a bigger job.
Memphis -9 vs. Cincinnati
These two teams played last weekend and Memphis won by ten.
Now they play in Memphis again.
What usually happens in immediate rematch games? The team that won the first time wins again. This time I don’t think it will be as close as it was last week.
Give me Memphis by ten or more for a second straight week and then enjoy the Tigers in the Cotton Bowl before Mike Norvell leaves for greener pastures.
Georgia +7 vs. LSU and the under 55
Tap your veins, boys and girls, my blood bank guarantee this week is Georgia to cover the seven against LSU.
I will be down in Atlanta for this game and I’m here to tell you that Georgia is going to make this a virtual home game.
My expectation is that many LSU fans, who already know their team will make the playoff, will save their money to travel for the college football semifinal. Meanwhile Georgia fans can pile into Atlanta and try to dog bark their way into the college football playoff.
Ultimately what I’m betting on here is that Georgia’s defense will have success stifling LSU’s offensive attack and will make this a game in the fourth quarter.
I also understand, by the way, if you have zero faith in this opinion because you’ve watched LSU lay waste to team after team all season long.
But I think this game will look quite a bit like the Auburn-LSU game.
So far Georgia hasn’t allowed more than 20 points to any opponent this year.
Tigers may well win, but I think they do it by less than a touchdown.
Take the under and the Dogs.
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State, the over 56
Wisconsin’s defense has crumbled down the stretch run of the season, but their offense has become much better.
Points have become much more common in Badger games.
Which has led to Wisconsin’s last four games all hitting the over. Meanwhile Ohio State scores points in bunches. I know when the two teams played back in October it was a 38-7 final, but I think this one is more high scoring.
Call it 45-24 Buckeyes, which gets us an easy over.
Clemson -28.5 vs. Virginia
I’m not stepping in front of this Clemson train again, no way, no how.
Dabo has this team convinced that all of America believes they are awful.
Which means Virginia is standing in front of a pain train.
There you have it, boys and girls, nine conference title game winners for you as you head into the weekend.