What better way to celebrate than with 12 treats to delight your bank accounts?
Last week we went 4-6, running our season total to 59-48, which is a 55% winning percentage on the year. That’s still a very good percentage but my goal is, as always, to hit 60% winners.
That’s an incredibly high standard — if you hit 52% you win money accounting for the vig — but in order to do that we have to keep winning at a high rate through the end of the season.
So let’s start winning, baby!
I’ve got 12 more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 12-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won and buy my new book which is out in bookstores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $16 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hardback book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself.
If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Stop being so cheap and sign up today.
All of our Outkick VIPs have now received their signed copies of the books. (And if you haven’t received your copy email firstname.lastname@example.org and let them know your name and your address).
The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
We’re going 12-0, baby!
Temple at Central Florida -10
How will an undefeated team — for its second year — that got no respect in the college football playoff rankings play off its bye week come tomorrow night?
My prediction? Pain for Temple.
Syracuse -4 at Wake Forest and the over 75, now Syracuse -6 and 75
Here’s the deal, I trust Syracuse coach Dino Babers, especially when he’s playing against a team like Wake Forest.
The last three Syracuse games have all gone over by substantial margins and now they are playing Wake Forest who has gone over in six of their seven games.
As if that weren’t enough, Wake has given up the following point totals to the past five power five conference teams the Demon Deacons played: 41 to Boston College, 56 to Notre Dame, 63 to Clemson, 38 to Florida State, and even 35 to Louisville.
That means their average ACC opponent has averaged 46.6 on them.
And Syracuse is as good, or better, on the offensive side of the ball than the average team they’ve played.
Honestly, I love this over more than I love any bet this week.
Which is why our blood bank guarantee is the over here. (I also like Syracuse to win so you should bet that one as well, just not as much as you put on the over).
Georgia -9.5 at Kentucky, now Georgia -9
Wildcat fans are all in a tizzy because I had the gall to point out they were rescued by an awful pass interference call against Mizzou and would have otherwise lost last weekend.
Here’s the deal — this Kentucky offense is AWFUL.
Flat out awful.
And Georgia’s defense is pretty damn good.
Do you remember when Alabama went on the road against Georgia in the blackout game back in 2008? How Georgia was all excited for that game and then Alabama rolled into Athens and just obliterated them in the first half? I think we’re going to see that all over again in Lexington.
I think Georgia is going to win, bigly.
The moment this line dropped below double digits I hammered it. And I’m going to keep hammering it all week.
Georgia by a billion.
Memphis -12.5 at ECU, now Memphis -13
Memphis has been a pretty big disappointment, I think, this year.
They’ve also been difficult to figure out.
But after a butt whipping at Mizzou they had a bye and I think they’ll go on the road at East Carolina and handle the Pirates. East Carolina has lost four straight, the last three games by 22 or more.
That bad ECU run continues against the Tigers on Saturday.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech, the over 77.5, now 77
I know what many of you are thinking — 77.5! are you insane?!
But the only game that hasn’t gone over — or pushed — all season for Oklahoma is the Army game.
Every other game Oklahoma has gone over.
And not just by a little bit, like way over.
Texas Tech is also 6-2 on overs all season. Meaning, you guessed it, buckle up and watch the points rain down.
Notre Dame at Northwestern +8.5, now Northwestern +9.5
I don’t just think Northwestern is going to cover in this game, I think they might win outright.
So far this season Northwestern has played most opponents, good or bad, in tight games that could have gone either way down the stretch.
I think that continues at home against the Irish, who may well start to feel the pressure later in the game if this one stays close. And why wouldn’t they? Think about it, after their big win over Wisconsin Northwestern is in great shape to potentially win the Big Ten West and advance to the Big Ten title game.
So all of Northwestern’s games will have that pressure going forward.
But not this one.
Meanwhile Notre Dame is playing for a chance at the college football playoff and can’t afford to slip up at all.
All Northwestern has to do is play a big favorite at home in a game no one expects them to win. Doesn’t that sound like the perfect recipe for an upset?
I think so.
Take the Wildcats and the points.
Texas A&M at Auburn, the under 47.5, now 48.5
I know Auburn is coming off a bye week and Gus Malzahn is trying to get their offense fixed, but I think the bigger question is what has happened to A&M’s offense? Why has the Aggie offense regressed as the season has progressed?
So far in the SEC this season A&M has scored 23, 24, 20 (in OT), 26, and 13.
Now they’re going ton the road at Auburn and the Tigers have had two weeks to get ready for an offense that was already sputtering?
I just don’t like the chances of the Aggies getting healthy here.
I think Auburn plays pretty well, but their offense hasn’t been great either. Meaning this game will be low scoring and ugly.
Which is why I love the under.
Charlotte +21 at Tennessee, now Charlotte +20.5
Tennessee’s offense shouldn’t be favored by 21 over air.
Moving right along.
Louisville at Clemson, the over 59.5, now 59.5
This is going to be an absolute bloodbath.
Louisville has given up 27, 28, 66. 38, and 56 in its past five games, all losses.
And all of those teams aren’t as good as Clemson.
Now they’re going on the road against a Clemson team that has scored 63, 41, and 59 in its past three games.
This, my friends, is what you call a recipe for disaster.
I think there’s a very good chance Clemson covers this over/under by themselves. But I also think Bobby Petrino is good for at least 14 points too.
So jump on the over.
South Carolina at Ole Miss, the over 65, now 67
The Gamecocks run so much no huddle that I think there will be many possessions in this game, raining down points on the scoreboard for both teams.
I also think Ole Miss’s pace will govern here and the Rebels have given up 62, 45, 33 and 31 to their four SEC opponents so far.
I don’t see South Carolina scoring less than 30 either.
Remember, they’ve never lost a party in Oxford, so why not sit back and enjoy a points party?
The over’s the play here.
Alabama -13.5 at LSU, now Bama -14.5
I love the Tide here.
Absolutely love them.
This Bama team has been a machine on offense so far and LSU hasn’t been able to score against the Tide since Nick Saban got things rolling in Tuscaloosa. In fact, here are LSU’s point totals since they last won a game against Bama: 0, 17, 17, 13, 16, 0, 10.
That’s an average of 10.4 points per game. (LSU also scored nine in their 9-6 win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa back in 2011. This means we have eight games of data proving LSU can’t score on Alabama).
Even if we double LSU’s point total here and give them twenty points, which would be the most they’ve scored against Bama in seven years, all Bama would have to do is score 35 to cover for us.
I think Bama is good for 35 regardless and I don’t have much faith in LSU’s offense here.
The Tide rolls.
There you have it; here comes 12-0.
Get rich, kids!