Last week we went 9-3, yep 9-3, baby!, running our season total to 68-51 which is just over a 57% winning percentage for the Outkick picks on the year.
If anyone is actually fading the picks — as opposed to just Tweeting about fading them — they are getting absolutely demolished this year.
At 57% winners we’ve set an incredibly high standard through ten weeks so far — if you hit 52% you win money accounting for the vig — but what’s even wilder is this: I’ve also been 4-0 in my last four “Lock It In” college football picks — Buffalo and Toledo last week, Buffalo and the over last night — which have been early week picks and haven’t been included here.
So if you add those picks in here, we’re actually sitting at 72-51, which would be 60% on the year in college football, which is white hot.
So let’s keep winning, baby!
I’ve got 14 more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 14-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won so far this year and buy my new book which is out in bookstores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $16 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hardback book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself.
If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
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All of our Outkick VIPs have now received their signed copies of the books. (And if you haven’t received your copy email firstname.lastname@example.org and let them know your name and your address. We did have some signed copies of the book bounce back because addresses didn’t match).
The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
Louisville at Syracuse -21, over 69, now Syracuse -21, 69
In the past four weeks here is what Louisville has given up on the defensive side of the ball: 66, 38, 56, and 77.
That’s an average of 59.25 points per game Louisville has given up.
Meanwhile Syracuse has scored 37, 40, 51, and 41.
Rather than do more math let me put this simply for you, if Syracuse doesn’t score fifty points in this game then they didn’t play the fourth quarter.
So then you ask yourself this, can Bobby Petrino score 19 points on Syracuse? Well, let’s check the data. Lo and behold Syracuse has given up 21 or more to every team going back to the third game of the season.
Simple math tells me 50+21 is 71.
And that’s more than 69.
Ole Miss-Texas A&M under 67, now 67
Ole Miss can’t stop anyone, but Texas A&M has a very good defense and a mediocre offense.
In fact, the Aggies haven’t scored more than 26 on a big five conference opponent so far this season. Maybe they’ll suddenly get hot and score 35 on Ole Miss, but I think it’s more likely we end up seeing a game very similar to Auburn-Ole Miss. You remember that game? Auburn won 31-16 and the under cashed with ease.
I think the Aggie defense will take the air out of the game and the result will be a double digit win well under the number here.
Which is why the under’s the play here.
Honestly, I think this number is way, way too high.
Kentucky at Tennessee +4, under 42.5, now Kentucky -6, 42.5
I absolutely love the under here because neither team has an offense.
But here’s another great stat for you: Kentucky has not beaten Tennessee by more than three points in a football game since 1984 and Kentucky hasn’t beaten Tennessee by more than a touchdown since 1981.
Even last year when Tennessee was amidst the worst season in its history the Wildcats only won by three points at home.
So what makes you think Kentucky is going to suddenly do something it hasn’t done in forty years, win against Tennessee by a large margin?
I just don’t see it, especially not with this offense.
Coming off back to back physically draining games against Missouri and Georgia, I feel like the Wildcats are going to be exhausted. And here sits Tennessee with zero pressure on it and a long history of handling Kentucky.
I think this is a low scoring game that Tennessee doesn’t just cover, I think they win outright.
But right now all you have to do is have the Vols keep it close and you win.
Boom, what a deal!
Auburn +14.5 at Georgia, now Auburn +14
I hopped on this game early because the line opened at Auburn +14.5 and I figured the line would end up below two touchdowns and settle around 13.
We’re headed that way right now.
These guys played twice last year, the first Auburn won by over 20, the second game Georgia won by over 20. This year’s game, I believe, will be low scoring and relatively close throughout.
Look, Auburn has been disappointing so far in 2018, but they have been predictably disappointing — not very good offensively and competitive all the way to the end even in their losses.
I don’t see any reason why that changes in this game.
I think the Dawgs win by around ten, but that gives us an easy cover.
Mississippi State at Alabama -26, now Alabama -24
Here’s what Mississippi State has done on the road in the SEC so far this season: lost 28-7 at Kentucky and lost 19-3 at LSU.
Now both Kentucky and LSU have good defenses, but Alabama’s defense is better than both teams.
So this game boils down to one question: if Mississippi State has only scored a total of ten points on the road against Kentucky and LSU, what makes you think things are going to change and score a lot more at Alabama?
I don’t think anything is going to change here, I think Mississippi State will have significant trouble scoring on Alabama.
So I’m penciling in Mississippi State with, at best, 10 points against the Tide.
That then leads me to this question, do I believe Mississippi State will hold Alabama beneath 35 points? I don’t. But I only need 35 if Mississippi State scores ten and honestly it wouldn’t stun me at all if the final score in this game is something like 31-3.
The Tide rolls.
Vanderbilt +14.5 at Missouri, over 59.5, now Vanderbilt +17 and 62
I hate to be watch me on television guy, but…watch me on television. (And go sign up for the VIP so you get the picks early).
I gave out this over pick to everyone on TV Tuesday and I expect this number to continue to rise to 64 or 65 by kickoff.
Because Vanderbilt’s pretty good on offense too and I think this game, much like the game Vandy just played at Arkansas, will turn into a shootout.
So far this year Vandy has been pretty mediocre on defense against everyone but Kentucky: allowing 37, 41, 37, and 31 to their SEC opponents.
As a result I have zero doubt Mizzou will score forty on them. (And I feel pretty good about fifty, honestly).
Do I think Vandy score at least twenty on Mizzou?
Boom, the over hits with ease, which is why, tap the veins, it’s my blood bank guarantee.
Purdue -12.5 at Minnesota, now Purdue -12
These are two gambling ships passing in the night — Purdue is on the upswing and Minnesota’s boat is taking on water.
Other than Michigan State, who took advantage of timely Purdue turnovers to win the game, Purdue has scored 42 or more on every Big Ten opponent since the first week of the season.
Meanwhile Minnesota just gave up 55 points to Illinois and 53 to Nebraska.
I’m no expert, but that ain’t good.
South Carolina +7 at Florida, now South Carolina +6.5
South Carolina has played its past four SEC opponents all within four points, winning three of them and losing one.
I don’t think the Gamecocks are a great football team, but they’ve been pretty good at finding ways to win.
Now Will Muschamp is heading back to Florida and I think it will be a low scoring affair because the Gators just aren’t good at all offensively and have been exposed the past two weeks by Georgia and Mizzou.
I think that continues for another week against South Carolina.
It wouldn’t shock me if the Gamecocks win outright, but I definitely expect them to keep this a single score game.
Which is why the Cocks will be crowing in Gainesville.
Ohio State at Michigan State +3.5, under 53, now Michigan State +3.5, 52
I’m going to put it to you simple here — the wrong team is favored in this game.
Michigan State is going to win this game outright.
Ohio State is 0-5 in its last five against the number and has been getting progressively weaker each week.
Moreover, I think we see a return to the 2015 and 2016 versions of this rivalry when the scores were 17-16 and 17-14 with each time winning a game.
That’s why I’m taking the under and the Spartans.
But I really love Michigan State with over a field goal here.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma over 76, now 76.5
My prediction: points, points, and more points.
Oklahoma is a scoring machine right now having posted: 66, 45, 52, 51, and 51 in the past five weeks. That’s an average of 53 points a game and that’s what you call a trend, kids.
So if we pencil in Oklahoma for 53 that means we’d only need 24 from Oklahoma State.
Given the Fighting Mike Gundy’s have frequently been scoring 30 or more and Oklahoma’s defense can’t stop anyone, this game goes over eighty easy.
There you have it, we’re going 14-0.
Get rich, kids and climb onboard the Outkick express.