I’m going to be doing a book signing on Friday from 12-2 in Rosemary Beach, Florida at the Tattered Cover bookstore there on the square in Rosemary. So if you’re going to be down on the Gulf Coast for Thanksgiving, come by and see me there from 12-2.
I’ll be donating $10 for every book we sell to the hurricane relief fund down in Panama City and surrounding communities.
Last week we went 7-8 running our season total to 85-63 which is a 58% winning percentage for the Outkick picks on the year. Included in that 7-8 was a brutal beat in overtime when Ole Miss scored a touchdown at Vanderbilt to hit the over and then the touchdown was overruled, meaning we lost the over by a single point.
Otherwise we would have had yet another winning week with the gambling picks.
If anyone is actually fading the picks — as opposed to just Tweeting about fading them — they are getting absolutely demolished this year. In fact, fade the picks guy has virtually disappeared as we have ground him into total oblivion.
At 58% winners we’ve set an incredibly high standard through 12 weeks — if you hit 52% you win money accounting for the vig — and we just have a few more picks left on the year at this point.
I’d love to get to 60% on the year which, honestly, is becoming difficult simply because we’ve picked so many games at this point our record doesn’t move that much for individual wins or losses.
But we’re incredibly close to that high goal so let’s keep rolling this week.
I’ve got 14 more picks coming for you this weekend, which are, of course, going to go 14-0, but I also want to ask you to spend a small bit of the money you’ve won so far this year and buy my new book which is out in bookstores now, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too. It’s $16 right now on Amazon and if you don’t want the hardback book, you can buy the nine hour unabridged audio version I recorded myself.
If you want an autographed copy — as many of you do — this is the second year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks I post my picks on Monday on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. Several thousand of you signed up for the Outkick VIP last year and this year’s VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the new TV show, which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Stop being so cheap and sign up today.
All of our Outkick VIPs have now received their signed copies of the books. (And if you haven’t received your copy email email@example.com and let them know your name and your address. We did have some signed copies of the book bounce back because addresses didn’t match).
The weekly Outkick picks are presented by SportsBookReview.com, which features the best one stop shop to compare prices on games anywhere on the Internet. The site will also let you know which side all the betting action is on, which is a pretty phenomenal resource as well.
So here we go with the Outkick picks presented by SportsBookReview.
Mississippi State -10 at Ole Miss and the over 54, now Mississippi State -11 and 59.5
I saw enough last week to see that Mississippi State’s offense is coming around, especially when they play against bad defenses. And Ole Miss is certainly a bad defense.
I jumped on this over the moment it came out — and posted it for our VIPs as well — and I’m still blown away it’s this low even now as it hangs beneath 60.
I feel very good about Mississippi State scoring forty in this game, potentially much more, and I feel like Ole Miss will have some success scoring as they’ve had success scoring on everyone this year except for Alabama and Auburn.
This feels like a 45-21 win for Mississippi State to me, which means you get the easy Bulldog cover and the over.
Happy Thanksgiving night to you and yours!
Arkansas at Missouri -21, over 61.5, now Mizzou -23 and 61.5
This has bloodbath written all over it.
Arkansas is 2-9, coming off a big beatdown against Mississippi State, and now their coach is suspending defensive backs for flirting with Mississippi State dance squad members.
Meanwhile Mizzou is two plays away from being 9-2 and ranked in the college football top ten. The Tigers are coming off big road wins over Florida and Tennessee and given that this will be Drew Lock’s last game with the team I’d expect for them to want to send him out in style.
What’s that mean?
Points, lots of points.
Mizzou will score fifty on Arkansas and the Razorbacks will put up 17 or more on Mizzou. The result? An easy cover and an easy over.
That’s why, tap the veins boys and girls, the over is the blood bank guarantee this week.
UCF -14.5 at South Florida, now UCF -14
UCF is up to number nine in the playoff standings and I’m sure their coaching staff is selling them on the idea that they can still make the playoff.
It isn’t true, but college kids often don’t know any better.
What’s the best way to make the playoff?
By blowing out your opponent to complete an undefeated regular season.
South Florida has lost four straight by margins of 21, 26, 12 and 10.
That’s an average of 17.25.
So pencil in Central Florida for a twenty point win and enjoy yourself a leftover turkey sandwich while your team covers with ease.
Michigan -4 at Ohio State, under 58.5, Michigan -5, 56
Ohio State has beaten Michigan for 13 of the last 14 years.
The last time Michigan won in Columbus was 2000!
When you face a long series of futility like this sometimes the best way to break out of it is by completely dominating your opponent and not allowing any time for the pee your leg factor to come into play. I think Michigan comes out and beats Ohio State by double digits and is never challenged at all.
Because I’ll be honest with you, if this game stays close Ohio State will find a way to win.
I like the Wolverines by double digits.
But I also like their defense to dominate and keep this game low scoring, which is why I also love the under here.
This feels like a 28-10 game to me.
So take the Wolverines and the under.
Notre Dame -10 at USC, now Notre Dame -11
Last week’s win over Syracuse really impressed me. Notre Dame came out early and dominated, leaving no time for the team to ever get nervous about the stakes of the game or how close a playoff spot was.
I think the same thing will happen in LA this weekend.
USC needs a fast start to avoid getting wiped out and I just don’t see the Trojans, whose coach is facing a wobbly job status, taking the early lead.
Which means Notre Dame wins by twenty or more.
Yep, the Fighting Irish are headed to the playoff and you’re headed for a cover.
Houston at Memphis over 76, now 75
I could spend time analyzing this game, but all you need to know is this — each team is going to score 40.
That means eighty is happening and eighty is much more than 75 or 76.
So, boom, the over hits with ease.
Oklahoma at West Virginia over 81.5, now 84
Here are the point totals from the past three weeks of Oklahoma games: 97, 95, 95. The Sooners are averaging 52.5 points a game in their past seven games.
Here are the point totals for West Virginia in the past four games: 58, 42, 47, and 41.
Simple math tells me each team is going to score forty, but there’s no way that forty is enough to win this one. It’s going to take fifty to make that happen.
Get ready for absolute wildness in Morgantown, where it may even take sixty to win.
Over’s the play even at these outlandish numbers.
South Carolina at Clemson over 58.5, now 58.5
All year long Vegas has hung lines as if South Carolina is good defensively.
But South Carolina is not that good defensively. In fact, the Gamecocks have been in several shootouts this year.
I think that continues at Clemson, where the Tigers will score at least 45 and where I think the Gamecocks fight back to score 24.
That’s what we call in the business: an easy over.
LSU at Texas A&M under 47, now 47.5
The most interesting part of this line has been the steady infusion of money on A&M to win. The Aggies are now -3 at most books.
I think that’s a dangerous bet given the Aggies haven’t beaten LSU yet since they joined the SEC. The much better side in this game is the under.
You’ve got two really good defenses going up against each other. In fact, these teams are kind of mirror images of each other.
The result? One team wins 21-17 over the other.
Instead of worrying about which side wins, just hop on the under and enjoy the show.
Purdue at Indiana over 62, now 64.5
It’s the battle of Indiana during basketball season, do you really think it’s going to be a defensive struggle?
Indiana has gone over in six of their last seven games and Purdue just gave up 47 points to Wisconsin.
47 to Wisconsin!
Sometimes it takes the Badgers a month to score that many points.
If you give up 47 points to Wisconsin you will give up points to anyone. (The number in that game, by the way, was 53.5. And the final score was Wisconsin 47 Purdue 44. So the two teams went for nearly forty over the number. What is this, Monday Night Football?)
We’ve got a shootout coming in Indiana.
Tennessee +3.5 at Vanderbilt
It’s a battle for bowl eligibility in Nashville as Vanderbilt tries to win their third straight against Tennessee.
If you want to know how bad Butch Jones left the Tennessee program consider this stat — Tennessee has been underdogs in all eight SEC games this year and 3.5 is the smallest underdog they’ve been all season. Despite that Jeremy Pruitt has found a way to beat Auburn and Kentucky and I think he’ll find a way to beat Vanderbilt this year too.
I see this is a low scoring game that the Vols steal late.
So give me the Vols plus the points.
(One caveat for people who aren’t from Tennessee. Even though this game is being played on the road, Tennessee will have way more fans here than Vanderbilt will.)
There you have it, kids, the picks are going 14-0.
Happy Thanksgiving week!