We went 6-4 last weekend to run our record to 46-44 on the year.
The biggest positive so far this year has been the blood bank guarantee — we hit easily on the Penn State at Iowa under — to run our season record there to 5-2 with an additional push on UF-UK that many of you won. This week we have a double blood bank guarantee so hopefully we can keep the roll there continuing.
Bit of news, I’ll be recording a live podcast with my buddy Chad Withrow from 104.5 the Zone in Nashville for any of you in downtown Nashville on Thursday night. We’ll be recording the podcast live on the second floor of the bar I’m a part owner of — the Downtown Sporting Club, from 6-7 pm central time.
So swing by and hang out if you can.
In the meantime, you can win $10k of my money this week by playing the free college football pick’em. I hope you all lose, but you can go make your picks here.
This will be the third year we’ve had the picks up early on the Outkick VIP message board. If you love to ride with the Outkick picks — or hate me and want to fade everything that I do — I post my picks Monday afternoon on the VIP message board so you can get the earliest numbers possible. Then I’ll post the picks for free here on Wednesday afternoon. This year’s new VIP’s will receive an autographed copy of my new book, Republicans Buy Sneakers Too, access to our VIP events across the nation, a VIP message board, a VIP phone line for my radio show, and other cool experiences, potentially involving the TV show(s), which will be announced on the VIP message board. So make sure you sign up for Outkick VIP today.
Here we go with the picks, 10-0 is coming, baby!
Ohio State -27.5 at Northwestern, now Ohio State -28
The Buckeyes had a week off and now they play a Friday night game which will be a virtual home game for them against Northwestern.
And I think it’s going to be a complete bloodbath for Northwestern, which just can’t score. How bad has it been for Northwestern against big five opponents? They’ve scored 7, 10, 15, and 10 points so far this year.
In order to cover here Northwestern is going to have to score 14 or keep Ohio State under 42 points.
Frankly, I don’t think they can do either of these things, especially if Ohio State comes out gunning as has been the case for the Buckeyes so far on the road this year.
Florida at South Carolina the under 49, now 48
Tap the veins, boys and girls, it’s time for the first blood bank guarantee of the weekend.
If you dive into the box score of Florida’s win against LSU you notice something pretty quick — Kyle Trask played out of his mind against LSU, converting third and longs against LSU’s defense at an extraordinary rate.
In fact, if Trask just plays average in that game against LSU this game isn’t remotely close, LSU wins by twenty or more with ease.
So the question we’re confronted with here is this: can Trask reprise an offensive performance that good on the road in the SEC two weeks in a row? I’m betting the answer is no.
That doesn’t mean that I think he will be awful, just that Florida’s offense will regress.
On the other side of the ball, I think the Florida Gator defense, finally facing an average SEC offense as opposed to one of the two best, will return to form.
Meanwhile South Carolina is nursing an injured quarterback which means I think they run the ball more than usual and don’t take shots down the field very often.
These Florida and South Carolina games have tended to be low scoring, particularly in Columbia, where five straight have gone under 49.
Make it six straight.
One team wins 21-17, but the winner won’t matter to you because you’ll have already cashed your under ticket.
Auburn -18.5 at Arkansas, now Auburn -19
The only reason Arkansas isn’t the worst team in the SEC is because Vanderbilt is in the SEC.
The Razorbacks are flat out awful and Auburn has had two weeks to stew over their atrocious offensive performance on the road against Florida.
Auburn has feasted on Arkansas the last three years winning 56-3, 52-20, and 34-3.
Granted two of those games were at Auburn, but I just don’t see this Arkansas offense having any success against the Auburn defense no matter where this game is played and I think Gus Malzahn will slice and dice this Razorback defense to shreds.
So while betting a big road favorite in the SEC can be dangerous, I love Auburn here.
War Eagle by 21 or more.
Clemson at Louisville +24 and the over 62.5
Here’s the deal, Louisville has given up 35, 39, and 59 points in the past three weeks of ACC play.
That means you can go ahead and pencil in Clemson for at least 45.
So your next question becomes, what can Louisville score?
Well, they’ve scored at least 24 in every ACC game so far this year. I think that continues against Clemson.
In fact, what does 45-24 as a final score get us?
An over and a cover!
Boom, hop on both.
Wisconsin -31 at Illinois, now Wisconsin -31
This Wisconsin defense is legit. So legit that the first thing I did when I started breaking this game down was ask the question, will Illinois even score in this game?
And I’m honestly not sure that they will.
Outside of a poor performance against Northwestern I want you to check out these Wisconsin defensive performances on the season.
The Badgers have won: 49-0, 61-0, 35-14 (Michigan scored 14 points after going down 35-0), 48-0, and 38-0.
I don’t remember the last time I saw any college team post four shut outs in their first six games, regardless of the opponent.
Make it five shutouts in seven games as Wisconsin beats Illinois 45-0.
Kentucky at Georgia -24.5, now Georgia -25
Last week Georgia blew it as a big home favorite against South Carolina. I kicked myself all weekend for taking Georgia in this game, including when I sent out the picks to the VIPs on the message board. Don’t you hate when you have that nagging feeling right as you make a bet that you’ve gone the wrong way? I should have known better, not to pick South Carolina to win, that would have been wild, but to pick the Gamecocks to cover a number that big coming off a bye week.
So you might be thinking, wait, aren’t you making the exact same mistake for a second straight week?
I don’t think so.
First, Georgia’s loss likely galvanized their attention this week — losing the turnover battle 4-0 was the real difference maker last week — and second Kentucky is awful on offense. I mean, downright putrid.
So bad that I’m even flirting with Georgia pulling off a shutout here.
But in the end it will just be a thorough drubbing from the moment toe meets leather to begin this game — Georgia wins 42-3.
LSU -19 at Mississippi State, now LSU -18.5
Mississippi State’s offense is absolutely atrocious.
Meanwhile LSU might have the best offense in all of college football. LSU was so good on offense against Florida last weekend that the Bayou Bengals only had four third downs in the entire game. FOUR THIRD DOWNS. It wasn’t just that Florida gave up over 500 yards of offense and 42 points on just 46 plays, it was that Florida didn’t even force LSU into third down on most of the drives.
I understand LSU is a big favorite on the road and I even understand that historically LSU hasn’t been very good in Starkville — the last time they won big there was 2013 — but this LSU offense is a totally different animal than anything we’ve seen from them before.
It travels, bigly.
In fact, LSU has scored 66 on the road against Vanderbilt and 45 on the road against Texas.
I don’t see any way LSU puts up less than 42 on Mississippi State — and that’s probably being conservative since LSU has scored at least 42 on every opponent so far this year.
Which means Mississippi State would have to score at least 24 to cover.
I don’t see any way that happens unless LSU puts up fifty or more.
Trust me, take LSU and enjoy the easy cover.
Mizzou -21.5 at Vanderbilt, now Mizzou -21
It’s never a good sign when your athletic director is directly asked whether he expects for his head football coach to return and he doesn’t say yes.
This means Derek Mason is a dead coach walking with the Commodores, who just got blown out at home last week by a huge UNLV underdog.
This week 5-1 Missouri rolls into town for their first road game since losing the opener at Wyoming.
And I have to tell you, this game won’t be remotely close.
I know the score of the Ole Miss game ended up somewhat close, but the outcome was never in doubt. And this game’s outcome won’t ever be in doubt either, but the score won’t be remotely close.
Michigan at Penn State -8.5, now Penn State -9
Two years ago Michigan rolled into Happy Valley coming off a big win over Penn State the previous year in Ann Arbor and hit a buzz saw. Penn State won 42-13 and the game was a blowout from the opening kickoff.
Last year Michigan whipped Penn State in Ann Arbor and this year they return to Happy Valley.
Sensing a theme here?
A Nittany Lion beat down is coming.
Every year James Franklin has his team sky high for at least one home game. This is that home game. Penn State will win this one by twenty or more.
In fact, I’m so certain of this, that’s right boys and girls, tap the veins, we’ve got our second blood bank guarantee of the weekend!
We’re going 10-0.
Get rich, kids!
And, as always, #respectthepicks