We’re not officially back, but we do have two straight winning weekends running our season record to 57-55 on the season, for a robust 51% winning percentage.
And you know what happens when you’ve won two straight weeks?
You go 11-0 in week three.
All of these opening lines, by the way, courtesy of Bet Online, which is the first place to release opening college football lines on Sunday, right around 4:30 eastern.
So get rich, kids, here we go.
Marshall at FAU -10.5 (Now FAU -7.5)
Here’s the deal, we’re betting on Lane Kiffin every weekend for the rest of the year.
This line has moved against us, but that doesn’t bother me, it just encourages me to put more money on the side I already bet on.
Unless there is major news that has come out, if you like a side and then the price moves against you, you don’t panic, you put more money down. That’s how you get rich.
And that’s exactly what I’m doing here.
In Lane we trust.
Memphis -14 at Tulsa (Now Memphis -12)
The Memphis offense is on an absolute tear and I’m convinced they are going to score 45 points or more on everyone, including Tulsa.
Riley Ferguson has 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last four games.
In fact, can we pause for a minute and consider that when Butch Jones arrived at Tennessee he had three NFL quarterbacks on the roster his first year — Nathan Peterman, Josh Dobbs, and Riley Ferguson — and that Butch Jones started the only one who won’t play in the NFL, Justin Worley.
Anyway, go Tigers.
Ole Miss at Kentucky over 62 (Now 63.5)
Kentucky’s defense gave up 26 points to Tennessee and the Vols missed two field goals as well and couldn’t get touchdowns when they were close to the goal line.
That means Kentucky’s defense should have given up 30 or more points to the Vols.
Which means Kentucky’s defense is playing like crap.
Meanwhile Ole Miss’s defense has given up 44, 35, 40, and 38 in the past four weeks of SEC play.
Bang, a shootout is coming in Lexington. Both teams are scoring 30 or more and you’re going to hit the over with ease here.
Ohio State at Iowa +16 (Now Iowa +18)
Iowa is 5-3 with all three losses by two, seven, and seven points.
Included in those losses is a last second touchdown by Penn State to win at Iowa.
This tells me that Iowa is a pretty good football team. And this game is at home the week after an incredible come from behind win by Ohio State that still has the nation buzzing.
Which means this game is a perfect spot for an upset.
Don’t believe me? Ask Jim Harbaugh what happened the last time he went to Iowa.
While they may not win, the Hawkeyes cover with ease.
Western Kentucky +9.5 at Vanderbilt (Now WKU +9.5)
Vanderbilt shouldn’t be favored by over a touchdown against anyone right now. After starting 3-0 the Commodores have dropped five straight, all while giving up at least 34 points in every game on defense.
Maybe I was too quick to apologize to Derek Mason.
This is the third straight year that Vandy and Western have played. The margin in the first two contests? Western Kentucky by two and Vanderbilt by one.
Another close game is coming and it wouldn’t shock me if Western actually wins this game.
A double digit line is pure insanity.
Texas +7 at TCU (Now Texas +7)
Here are the results when Tom Herman’s team has gone up against a top ten opponent this season — lost to USC by three in overtime, lost to Oklahoma by five, lost to Oklahoma State by three in overtime.
Here we go again with another game for Tom Herman against a top ten opponent.
And I feel like Texas is going to keep this game close and there’s a good chance that the Longhorns finally get their top ten win.
South Carolina at Georgia -22.5 and the over 46 (Now Georgia -24 and 45)
The line can’t get set high enough for the Bulldogs who have now won six of their seven games by twenty or more points. Now here come the 6-2 Gamecocks into Athens. Does Will Muschamp have more magic left or does Georgia finally expose a plucky but undermanned Gamecock horde.
I’ve got to admit, I’m a little bit nervous this is a trap game given that its wedged right between the Florida and Auburn games, but Kirby Smart is looking exactly like Nick Saban so far this year and Saban’s team don’t fall victim to things like trap games.
So I think Georgia exposes South Carolina a bit and scores forty or more. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks post 14.
That gets us a cover and an easy over.
Virginia Tech -2 at Miami (Now Virginia Tech -2.5)
The Hurricanes have flirted with disaster all season, winning their last four games by 4, 8, 1, and 5.
Those close wins have come against teams that have gone a combined 11-20.
Sooner or later I think the Canes get exposed and it wouldn’t surprise me if this is the weekend.
Virginia Tech is rolling with Justin Fuente, having won three games by double digits since losing to Clemson and not given up more than ten points in any of those games.
I think that continues on Saturday in Miami when Virginia Tech ends the Hurricanes perfect season.
Florida at Mizzou +3 (Now Mizzou -3)
Mizzou is going to win this game by double digits.
I’m not kidding about this.
The moment I saw this line come out I posted to take Mizzou on the Outkick VIP message board and within a couple of hours the line had swung six points, moving from Florida by a field goal to Mizzou by a field goal.
I still don’t think that’s enough.
In the past four weeks Drew Lock has thrown 18 touchdowns and two interceptions. Granted, for the skeptics, two of those games have come against Idaho and UConn, but Lock has also thrown seven touchdowns and just one interception on the road at Kentucky and at Georgia. (Lock had four touchdown passes against Georgia. Fun fact, Mizzou had 28 points against Georgia. The rest of the SEC combined has 24 points this year.)
Florida has no offense and is a mess in the middle of a coaching change.
So I absolutely love Mizzou here.
And I actually think Mizzou has a decent chance, believe it or not, of winning out against this schedule.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State over 75 (Now 76)
I toyed with taking Oklahoma here, but there are going to be so many points scored I’d rather just sit back and enjoy the show.
I think both teams score 40 or more and this is one of the most entertaining football games of the year.
So let’s just light a big victory cigar and watch the defenses go up in smoke.
5 Game Parlay of the Week
Let’s have some fun and take a big swing here this weekend with a five gamer.
WKU +9.5 at Vanderbilt, Ole Miss at Kentucky the over 63.5, Florida at Mizzou -3, Marshall at Florida Atlantic -7.5, and Memphis -12 at Tulsa.
Put down $100 and you can win $2500.
Plus, two of these games are Friday night so if you lose that parlay you can still put down some more money on the other three games for Saturday.
Boom, have fun.