Last week wasn’t great, we went 5-7 based on the Outkick VIP lines — 6-6 based on the lines we gave out on the website here, Penn State covered -28,5 by a half point, but lost for all of you who had them +29.5 or more which was most of you — running our record to 69-68 on the year.
The positive angle here is that the blood bank guarantee cashed with ease.
So as those who don’t #respectthepicks take aim at your boy, just know that 69 is our lucky number.
Look out, we’re going 11-0 this week.
Opening lines are courtesy of BetOnline.Ag, where they have the first college football lines to drop every single Sunday right around 4:30 eastern.
Here we go, boys and girls, with 11-0 coming.
Buffalo -17.5 at Ball State (Now Buffalo -20.5)
While many of us will be watching the Titans play at the Steelers in NFL action on Thursday night, the Outkick Army will be notching our first win of week 12 with an easy cover by Buffalo at Ball State.
Yep, it’s MACTION.
I’ve been following the putridness that is Ball State this year and I’ve got some numbers for you over the past six weeks in MACTION.
In the past six weeks Ball State has lost by 52, 28, 45, 41, 42, and 46 points.
And now you’re telling me that Buffalo, a team good enough to beat FAU this year coming off nine days to prepare for this game, is less than a three touchdown favorite?
Get the fuck out of here.
Oklahoma -35 at Kansas (Now Oklahoma -36.5)
Absolute blood bath coming for Kansas this weekend, no other way to put it.
My only concern is that Oklahoma will pull its starters too early in this game because they don’t want to risk Baker Mayfield getting hurt in more important games.
Which is why I think we’ll have our cover by halftime and you’ll be able to lock in your win with an easy wager on the second half line.
Mississippi State -12.5 at Arkansas (Now Mississippi State -12)
I know Mississippi State is coming off a tough, physical loss to Alabama, but Arkansas is awful. How awful? Other than the last second win over Ole Miss and the overtime loss to Texas A&M, Arkansas has lost every SEC game by 26, 32, 32 and 23.
And now Mississippi State rolls into town and Dan Mullen is looking to impress everyone with money to spend in the coaching search by finishing 9-3 on the year.
That means points, lots of points rolling in for State.
I’m tempted to take the over here too, but Arkansas’s offense disappeared in Baton Rouge so I’m just going to stick with State winning with ease.
UAB +11 at Florida (Now UAB +10.5)
Florida’s offense should not be a double digit favorite over air right now.
So there’s no way in hell I’m taking them to cover against UAB. Especially not when that’s a UAB team that has won seven games already.
And this is UAB’s Super Bowl.
It wouldn’t shock me if UAB wins this game outright. But it would definitely shock me if the Gators win by double digits here.
Blazers with an easy cover.
FIU at FAU -14 (Now FAU -14)
Here’s the deal, Lane Kiffin’s FAU offense is on fire. Other than the intentional safety against Marshall he’s also been on a covering roll as well.
Now here comes FIU, with no hope to stop Joey Saltwater’s boys at all.
Mizzou -7.5 at Vanderbilt and over 66 (Now Mizzou -8.5 and 67)
The blood bank guarantee has been on fire of late, but let me tell you something, I’m taking the next step in gambling this week. This isn’t just a blood bank guarantee, this is a BET YOUR KID’S COLLEGE FUND GUARANTEE.
Whatever you’ve got saved up for your kids for college, roll it out on Mizzou this week.
Vandy has given up 34 points or more to every single SEC team they have played this year and is coming off a 23 point home loss to Kentucky. SEC opponents are scoring an average of 46 points a game on Vandy so far this year. How bad has Vandy’s defense been? They gave up 38 to Florida!
Meanwhile Mizzou has scored 45 and 50 in its last two SEC games. (And 28 at Georgia and 34 at Kentucky on the road).
I have never been more confident in a bet than I am Mizzou to cover here and hang 50 on Vandy.
Book it, Mizzou, big.
And the over.
Kentucky at Georgia over 50.5 (Now 50.5)
The Wildcats have given up 28 or more every time they’ve played a remotely decent SEC offense this year. (Although they did hold Vandy to 21 last week so that was pretty impressive).
I think Georgia is going to come out fired up on offense and defense after the disaster at Auburn and see them hanging 40 on Kentucky, which is why I’m shocked the over/under is so low.
I see Georgia winning this game 45-17 and the over hitting easily.
LSU at Tennessee over 46 (Now 46)
Tennessee has no hope of stopping LSU’s rushing attack. I mean, zero. So I don’t see any way LSU scores less than 35 points in Knoxville.
And I also think the Tennessee offense will perform somewhat decently without Butch Jones.
Meaning the Vols can score 17 or so.
What’s 35 and 17? It’s 52.
Which is nearly a touchdown more than the number in this game.
Now how about those Grumors?
Syracuse at Louisville over 73.5 (Now 71.5)
Last week Dino Babers effectively said — defense is for suckers and let Wake Forest and Syracuse just play a defenseless track meet of a game. That final? 64-43
Now Syracuse is going on the road to play at Louisville, a team they gave up 62 to last year. Do we really think Syracuse’s defense is going to suddenly stop Lamar Jackson, Bobby Petrino and company this year?
Of course not.
Louisville is going to score 50 in this game and Syracuse will score 30.
That’s 80 points, baby.
Cash the check.
SMU at Memphis -11 (Now Memphis -12.5)
Memphis is coming off a bye week and hankering to score points.
Meanwhile SMU, while much improved, is coming off a brutal stretch of playing four straight weeks in one score games.
At some point you just run out of gas.
And I think that’s where SMU is right now.
And that’s not good because Memphis is rested and ready to post a big win. Play this one right and with all the money rolling in from your Outkick gambling winnings this week you’ll be walking with your feet ten feet off Beale.
Outkick’s 4 Game Parlay of the Week
Mizzou -8.5 and the over 67 against Vandy paired with the over 50.5 in Kentucky at Georgia and Buffalo -20.5.