Well, I hope all of you loaded up on Mizzou this past weekend for the first time ever bet your kid’s college fund guarantee. Because we didn’t just cover, we covered by 20 points.
This was the most money I’ve ever had on a game so that helped to balance out the fact that we got absolutely murdered on three late game situations this past week. Buffalo took a knee on the two with two minutes to play and Ball State refused to use their timeouts — I nearly put my remote through the television screen on this one — there were no points scored in the fourth quarter of LSU-UT despite three first and goals in the quarter, and Vandy threw an interception from the two yard line — caught by a defensive lineman! — on first and goal with 2:40 left in Mizzou-Vandy. Win all three of those, as we probably should have given the situations, and we go 8-3, instead we lost all three and went 5-6. That means our record is now exactly even on the year 74-74.
Which, to be honest, is kind of incredible in its own right.
With that in mind, the picks are going up early this week because I’m down in Naples, Florida this weekend with my family and will be spending all day boating on Wednesday.
Yep, I’m on a boat, bitch.
But while we’re on a boat y’all can go ahead and plan how to spend all the money you’ll have to spend after we go 11-0 over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
11-0 here we come!
Miami of Ohio -21 at Ball State (Now -18)
This line has moved against us, but Ball State is still really, really bad. And they are playing just five days after they screwed us this past Thursday when Buffalo chose not to score and cover.
So I’m all in on Miami of Ohio tonight.
Plus, what else are you going to do on Tuesday night? Might as well have some money wagered on some Maction.
Mizzou -13 at Arkansas (Now Mizzou -11)
Mizzou has won its past five games by these margins: 47, 40, 29, 33, and 28.
So why climb off the blood bank when the blood bank keeps printing money?
Mizzou, big, again.
Louisville at Kentucky, the over 68
Points, points, and then more points is my forecast.
Louisville is rolling on offense, but their defense has been atrocious. Meanwhile the Kentucky defense has been pretty consistently mediocre.
Last year’s game went for 79 points.
I think this year’s will go for even more.
Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Florida State at Florida, the under 44
This might be the worst game ever played between Florida State and Florida and I think points will be at an absolute premium.
We know the Gators are awful on offense, but FSU isn’t much better.
One team wins 17-14 and if you play the under you’ll win no matter which team does.
FAU -20.5 at Charlotte (Now FAU -21.5)
Lane Kiffin is a covering machine right now.
And he just sent me a shirt and a handwritten note. Do you really think there’s any way he’s not covering after that?
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 21, 2017
Like a bunch of coeds at FAU, I’m climbing on board the Lane Train, baby!
Vandy at Tennessee -1 (Now Tennessee -1)
Ah, the Sadness Bowl, a match up of the only two big five conference teams in the state of Tennessee, neither of which has won a single SEC game all year.
While all the attention has been on Butch Jones’s awfulness this year, can we pause for a moment and consider how putrid the performance of Vandy’s team has been? Despite Derek Mason’s bona fides they’ve given up 34 or more points in every SEC game so far and they’ve lost their SEC games by margins of 59, 14, 31, 22, 7, 23, and 28. After four years at Vandy Mason’s 17-31 overall and, wait for it, 5-26 in the SEC.
Plus, no one is showing up for Vandy games — seriously, it looks like a bad high school game in Texas — and yet I haven’t heard anyone suggesting Mason should lose his job this year.
Is it just because Vandy football doesn’t matter at all? Shouldn’t the expectations be better than 5-26? Or is it because Vandy started 3-0 and then everyone just stopped paying attention?
I don’t know, but I think the Vols win in Neyland to make Vandy 0-8 in the SEC and let UT avoid the first eight loss season in school history.
Washington State +11 at Washington (Now Washington +9)
Washington State beat Stanford and Utah and now has had two weeks to prepare for Washington. I know the Cougars were awful in losses to California and Arizona, but the team has been really good some weeks. And shouldn’t Mike Leach with two weeks to prepare garner a bit more respect than being a double digit road underdog?
Especially considering Washington played an insanely late Saturday game and the Huskies were already at a disadvantage with Washington State having two weeks to prepare?
Plus, Washington State is still playing for a chance at the Pac 12 title and Washington is playing for a better bowl bid since Stanford already has the Pac 12 North tie break over them.
I just think this game sets up well for a potential upset for the Cougars. And if not an upset, at least an easy cover.
Ohio State -10.5 at Michigan (Now -11)
I have zero faith in Jim Harbaugh or his offense right now. Meanwhile the recipe for Ohio State games is pretty simple, they either destroy teams or lose by double digits. The only exception to this rule is the Penn State game. I think they destroy Michigan.
So I’m rolling with my boy Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes to crush Michigan this weekend and make Jim Harbaugh the most dominant 8-4 fourth place in the Big Ten East coach in the history of college football.
East Carolina at Memphis, the over 78
I know, I know, I’m crazy for taking an over this big here.
But have you see what Memphis’s offense has been doing lately? They are unstoppable. I think they score 60 by themselves.
That means ECU only has to score 21 and we cover with ease.
Bang, enjoy the points, kids.
Bama -4 at Auburn (Now Bama -4.5)
The moment I saw Nick Saban start off his press conference joking about ripped blue jeans, I knew the Tide had this game covered.
I’m serious, I don’t know what it is, but Saban wouldn’t have been joking in a press conference like that unless he was supremely confident his team was set. That wasn’t about Mercer, that was about finding out a way to kick Auburn’s ass.
The Tide are healthier than they have been since week one and I think they’ll turn Jarrett Stidham into a stuttering, uncertain quarterback like we saw him at Clemson and against LSU in the second half.
Bama wins by ten and rolls into the SEC title game at 12-0.
Clemson at South Carolina +15.5 (Now South Carolina +14)
So far this season the Gamecocks have only lost one game by 14 points, at Georgia.
I think Will Muschamp will find a way to keep this game within two touchdowns at home in Columbia.
Plus, the only team Clemson has beaten by over two touchdowns since September was Florida State and that score was an aberration since it was a three point game with four minutes left and Clemson scored a touchdown with 35 seconds remaining to get the margin out to 17.
I think Muschamp keeps it closer than two touchdowns and gives us another win.
There you have it, boys and girls, 11-0 for Thanksgiving, my early Santa Clay gifts for you.
#dbap #respectthepicks #shootersshoot