Last week I told y’all to respect the picks and trust me — that good things were coming.
And good things came last Saturday.
We went 7-4 — with an awful late collapsing cover by West Virginia that kept us from 8-3 — to run our season record back into positive territory — we’re now 51-50 on the season for a 51% winning percentage.
And if you took my advice and played my four team parlay last weekend — Penn State to cover, the over, Alabama to cover against Tennessee on the blood bank guarantee and Syracuse to cover against Miami — you got a massive win like I did. (This was the best weekend of gambling I’ve ever had as I got big money down on the bets I was most confident in.)
I’ll start giving you one four game parlay every week that I’m also playing. (And, by the way, I understand that hard core gambling guy says don’t play parlays because you don’t get even odds, but I gamble for fun. And parlays make gambling infinitely more fun and offer the possibility of big wins.) So I’m going to keep playing parlays.
Reminder that the picks go up for Outkick VIP members on Sunday around 5 et, so if you want these picks the moment I’m placing my earliest bets then subscribe to the Outkick VIP for $99 and get a free tshirt in the process. You get access to our VIP events all over the nation and you get a free tshirt in the process. So go sign up for that today.
This week we’re going to continue our roll and go 11-0. #shootersshoot #dbap #respectthepicks
Here we go:
Florida State at Boston College +6 (Now Boston College +3.5)
This line opened at Boston College +6 and I couldn’t believe that Florida State was nearly a touchdown road favorite over anyone in the ACC. Much less a Boston College team that has been getting progressively better all season long.
BC is 4-4 and is coming off two straight ACC wins where it has scored 40+, over Louisville and Virginia. The Eagles have played a brutally tough schedule and will keep this game close, if not win outright.
Meanwhile, Florida State has just been awful.
Fly Eagles fly, college edition.
Rutgers +23 at Michigan (Now Rutgers +24)
This Michigan offense shouldn’t be favored by over three touchdowns against any Big Ten opponent, even Rutgers. Consider, that Michigan hasn’t beaten a team by 23 or more all season.
The only team that has truly crushed Rutgers all season is Ohio State and the Scarlet Knights are actually coming off two straight Big Ten wins.
I understand why so many people feel great trepidation betting on Rutgers in a road game here as Michigan comes off an awful road beating, but I just don’t think the Michigan offense is good enough to cover a number this big.
Go Scarlet Knights.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia +8 (Now West Virginia +7.5)
West Virginia has crushed us on two straight weeks, scoring a bevy of late points to cover and beat Texas Tech and then allowing a bevy of late points to give away an easy cover at Baylor. Now Oklahoma State travels to West Virginia and the line is too big for a game where 80 points are likely to be scored between the two teams.
So give me West Virginia and let’s hope Dana Holgersen can make up for killing us on two straight weeks.
Kansas State -24 at Kansas (Now Kansas State -24)
Simple rule, whoever Kansas is playing, take the other team no matter what the line is.
This week it’s Kansas State.
So we’re going with Kansas State.
USC at Arizona State +7 (Now Arizona State +3)
This is another line where when it came out my jaw almost dropped. Arizona State as a touchdown underdog?! Have you seen how USC is playing and almost simultaneously seen that somehow the Sun Devils have turned into the 1985 Chicago Bears the past two weekends?
I absolutely love Arizona State not to just to cover here but to beat USC outright.
Duke at Virginia Tech -15.5 (Now Virginia Tech -15.5)
The Hokie offense is hot and I love to ride a hot offense when I get the chance. Last week Virginia Tech put up 59 on North Carolina, this week they’ll put up 40 on Duke and cover with ease.
Let’s roll, boys.
Georgia -12.5 over Florida (Now Georgia -13.5)
While Jim McElwain has been making up fake death threats, Kirby Smart has been quietly scheming a total beat down of the Gators.
I absolutely love Georgia in this game because, put simply, Florida can’t score on offense.
The only way Georgia loses this game is if the Bulldogs turn it over three or more times and allow the Gator defense and special teams to score 14 or more points. I’m not saying that can’t happen — trust me, Bulldog fans, I know the history of this rivalry over the past 25 years — but I am saying it’s highly unlikely.
If this game goes like I expect it to the Bulldogs win 31-10 and are never in doubt of losing.
So long as you can get them under two touchdowns, I love the Bulldogs here.
FAU +1.5 at WKU (Now FAU -7)
We’ve never had a line move this much in the history of Outkick VIP picks. I saw this line open at Western Kentucky -1.5 and immediately published my pick on FAU. By 15 minutes later FAU had moved to -3 and the line continued to climb all the way to FAU now a full touchdown favorite. This is why the Outkick VIP membership is worth it, you can move on lines before they take off sometimes.
I still think that’s not enough points because this FAU offense is rolling under Lane Kiffin and Kendall Briles and FAU wins by double digits against an erratic WKU team.
Again, if I were Arkansas, I’d hire Lane Kiffin and this entire staff at the end of the year.
Penn State +7 at Ohio State (Now Penn State +6.5)
I know Ohio State has been playing great football, but I believe the Nittany Lions have the superior quarterback play. Which is why I’m taking Penn State to cover here.
This is also the Big Ten title game so I expect both teams to keep it close all game long. Here’s to hoping James Franklin’s team can get a second straight win over the Buckeyes, but even if they can’t I think this game comes down to a late field goal.
We win either way.
Tennessee at Kentucky under 46 (Now 46.5)
This is my blood bank guarantee for the week.
There is no way Tennessee is scoring many points — especially if running back John Kelly ends up getting suspended for his pot citation — and Kentucky isn’t very good either, which means Mark Stoops is going to tighten up and coach this game like it’s the Super Bowl.
Which, to be honest, it kind of is for Kentucky fans.
That means it’s a low scoring, ugly game.
It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if Tennessee ended up winning this game, but I think the final is something like 17-14. That means you win either way.
Vandy at South Carolina under 46.5 (Now 44.5)
Vanderbilt has fallen apart over the past four weeks and hit the bye week with two weeks to prepare for a mediocre South Carolina offense. The Gamecocks also had their bye week, which means they had two weeks to prepare for this game too.
When you have two strong defensive coaches with lots of time to prepare, what happens Hardly any points are scored.
So I love the under here as well.
SPECIAL FOUR GAME OUTKICK PARLAY
For those of you who like to play parlays, I’m going to start giving you my favorite four game parlay every week. I usually play two or three four game parlays every weekend. Last week I hit my top four team parlay and the week before I did too. (I gave out last week’s Outkick four game parlay on our college football pregame show), That probably means I won’t hit another one this season, but that’s not going to stop me from firing away.
So here goes:
Vandy at South Carolina under, Tennessee at Kentucky under, FAU -7 at WKU, and Georgia -13.5 vs Florida.
There you go, boys and girls, get rich!