Outkick’s Vegas Top Ten

By Todd Fuhrman

It’s about damn time!  The first installment of the college football playoff rankings was released this week and naturally the committee didn’t do their jobs.  We get that it’s a combination of “best teams” and “most deserving,” but when you openly talk about the name cache associated with Penn State making them a compelling choice if things break the right way you lose credibility.

The goal is to get the four best teams into the mix regardless of conference affiliation, (yes, I know this isn’t possible) but that’s how we should let things play out on the field if resumes allow for it.  To put things in perspective there’s only 1 team in the country that would be within 4.5 points of Alabama on a neutral field and according to the committee they’re currently being pegged as the 6th team in the land; needing some real help to leapfrog their competition.  To put things in perspective notice the odds at BetOnline.AG to win the national championship associated with our top 10; it’s not coincidence the top 3 have some of the shortest odds in the country.

 

Sorry Auburn fans, while we hold your program in the highest esteem even wins over Georgia 2x and Alabama requires chaos everywhere else for that 50-1 price tag to have real legs come January 1st.  Also, Georgia fans, rather than betting your Bulldogs to win the national title at 8-1 start betting them on the moneyline as early as next week and roll over those funds every game here on out and should they hoist the national championship trophy your pay day will be much more lucrative.

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Vegas Top 10

  1. Alabama -130
  2. Ohio St 7-2
  3. Clemson 10-1
  4. Oklahoma 33-1
  5. Georgia 8-1
  6. Penn St 20-1
  7. Washington 40-1
  8. Auburn 50-1
  9. Oklahoma St 20-1
  10. Notre Dame 14-1

Underrated: Texas

It’s rare to include a storied program mired in mediocrity over the last few years as underrated, but that’s exactly what’s brewing in Austin these days.  We know Texas has a dearth of gamebreakers on offense however, Coach Herman has identified a bona fide stud at QB in Sam Ehlinger (he gets a free pass for the OT interception vs. TCU).  Given their inability to win close games, Texas is being grossly undervalued by oddsmakers right now and that explains why the ‘Horns are a team you might be able to ride to the window during the season’s final month while the rest of the league beats itself up fighting for a birth in the title game.

Overrated: Iowa State

If you ever want to have someone tell you there is no Santa Claus, that the Easter Bunny is only around to sell commercial products, and that the tooth fairy is just your mom or dad operating in the shadows ask a sports bettor.  Now, our insinuation here isn’t that the Cyclones are sprinkled with fairy dust or living a charmed life in 2017, however the honeymoon phase is about to come crashing down for the dark horse conference title contenders.  State’s meteoric rise up the polls to top 15 status is a bit premature in our eyes despite their upset wins over Oklahoma and TCU in recent weeks.  Look for the betting market to catch up to Matt Campbell’s bunch over the final weeks as a bit of the luster comes off Iowa State’s 7-1 ATS record when they’re forced to play with a giant target on their back.

Double Digit Dog of the Week: South Carolina +24.5 (5-4 ATS)

When you’re really hungry there’s nothing like comfort food to squash that craving.  Gambling is no different; professional bettors love to feast on sandwiches when the schedule allows for them.  So I know you’re asking right now what the hell is this idiot talking about?  Georgia enters Saturday in the ultimate “sandwich” spot fresh off a drubbing of historical rival Florida with a massive showdown against Auburn looming on deck the following week.  Nobody is going to fault the upstart Georgia Bulldogs, the #1 team in the country according to the college football playoff rankings, if they’re not at their absolute best against a middling Gamecocks side, right?  The angle I love in this game isn’t only about the schedule but the fact this is an absolutely massive number with such a low total.  Add to this tasty treat the fact South Carolina is 121st in the country in adjusted pace of play (63.9 snaps per game), and has been even slower their last three games matched up against a Georgia team not afraid to take it’s sweet time offensively either (107th in pace, 65.7 per game).  South Carolina has been outstanding as an underdog this year because of how slowly they play and their ability to win hidden yardage battles placing a premium on every possession with a defense ranked 46th in the country surrendering 382 yards per game against FBS opponents.  There’s no need to break down individual match-ups when you know the Bulldogs will want to run the football while South Carolina hopes to hit big plays with Jake Bentley keeping Georgia honest.  This has all the makings of a comfortable Georgia win in the ballpark of 27-10 allowing the good guys to head to the window with a double-digit dog live right from the start.

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