Outkick’s Vegas Top Ten For Week 12 2018

By Todd Fuhrman

Georgia made a statement last weekend! However our Bet the Board Top 10 has Michigan moving up to the three spot behind the clear cut Top 2 in Alabama and Clemson. There was only one other minor change with Penn State jumping back into the top 10 over the aforementioned Auburn Tigers on the strength of the Nittany Lions cover against Wisconsin.  Our overrated team this week plays in a national title implication contest in NYC, another familiar SEC school hops into our underrated portion, and the best bet goes to Big 12, where a matchup between the Cyclones and Longhorns offers some value.

Bet the Board Top 10 Week 12:

1.) Alabama

2.) Clemson

3.) Michigan

4.) Georgia

5.) Notre Dame

6.) Oklahoma

7.) Ohio State

8.) Washington

9.) Penn State

10.) Mississippi State

Overrated:  Syracuse

Syracuse has been a great story this year compiling an 8-2 record and recently sliding up to #12 in the College Football Playoff Rankings.  That being said, this team is NOWHERE near as good as the popularity polls lead you to believe.  Syracuse has faced an average schedule at best with their toughest game coming against a Clemson squad who lost QB Trevor Lawrence in the 2nd quarter and Kelly Bryant before the game even kicked off.  This offense gets a ton of praise, but they’re only 49th in the country at 5.8 yards per play, and are a net 0.0 yards per play on the season.  Only LSU (well chronicled in this very section for being offensively inept), Texas, and Northwestern have a negative net yards per play this season but the difference being all of them have faced a Top 20 slate of opponents.  Syracuse is currently catching 10.5 points at BetOnline.AG on a neutral field against the Irish and that number may continue to tick up from now until kickoff

Underrated: Missouri

Missouri is quickly becoming the mascot off our underrated section but we figure if the drum keeps beating someone will listen.  The Tigers have faced a Top 10 strength of schedule this year, and turned it on as of late, winning 3 of their last 4 (lone loss to Kentucky, a game in which they led 14-3 late in the 4th quarter; We’re definitely not still bitter).  We keep pounding the table on one of the least talked about yet impressive QB’s in the country Drew Lock, currently throwing for 7.7 yards per attempt with 21 TD’s and 8 INT’s in a league with some elite defenses.  Missouri has an offense ranked in the Top 20 in overall efficiency and a defense on the fringe of becoming top 50.  Despite having “4” in the loss column, Missouri would be favored on a neutral against the team discussed above and by a wider margin than people think.

Best Bet: [417] Iowa State +3

We featured the Cyclones in our underrated section two weeks ago and we’re going to back them here against the Longhorns.  Iowa State is on a mission, winners of their last 5 games, disposing of opponents such as West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.  The Cyclones are a net +0.8 yards per play whereas Texas is actually a -0.2 net yards per play despite near identical schedules.  Iowa State’s defense has a great shot at making this Texas offense one dimensional, completely eliminating their chance to establish a viable ground threat.  On the other side of the ball, Cyclones QB Brock Purdy has been phenomenal throwing for 10.87 yards per attempt, a 68.6% completion percentage, and a 13:2 TD to Interception ratio since taking over at the starting QB position.  He has a chance to exploit a Texas defense that has been susceptible to the pass (7.6 yards per attempt, 82nd). Iowa State is the team with the better passing attack and the better defense even with star running back David Montgomery sidelined for the 1st half.  Cyclones +3 will be a ticket that gets us to the window outright come Saturday

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