Vegas Top Ten – Week 11

By Todd Fuhrman

Alabama fans can now rest easier; we’ve adjusted Alabama back up to the #2 spot in our Bet the Board Top 10 with the impending return of Tua time in Tuscaloosa. As college football fans (and bettors) we’re fortunate to be blessed with an LSU-Bama matchup this weekend that has major CFB Playoff implications.   However when it comes to gambling they’re not the only two programs that matter and we’ve seen other movement in our top 10. Utah went on the road last weekend to Seattle and put together an impressive second half jumping up to #8 in our most recent rankings.  Florida dropped 4 spots after an anemic offensive effort against Georgia but still remains in our Top 10.  The overrated team this week has covered the spread by an average of 21.8 points over the last 3 weeks while our underrated squad is actually on a 3-game win streak but sitting idle this week.  This weekend’s best bet takes us to the Big XII as we look to fade a team that somehow landed inside the top 15 in the first college football playoff reveal

Bet the Board Top 10 Week 11:

1.)  Ohio State

2.)  Alabama

3.)  LSU

4.)  Clemson

5.)  Georgia

6.)  Oklahoma

7.)  Penn State

8.)  Utah

9.)  Auburn

10.)  Florida

Overrated:  Kansas State

After three straight wins and covers (by an average of 21.8 points!) the Kansas State Wildcats have become over-valued in both the betting market and national polls.  We remain steadfast in our belief K-State is more akin to a Top 35 team regardless of what the committee is trying to tell you right now.  Kansas State is currently a net -0.6 yards per play on the season despite their 6-2 record.  Yes, this means for every snap of the ball (combined offense and defense), the Wildcats are losing 0.6 yards.  Even in their upset victory over Oklahoma they allowed 14.6 yards per pass attempt and were outgained by 3.54 yards per play.  We love Chris Klieman and the Wildcats long term but this season Kansas State doesn’t rank in the Top 30 in either offensive or defensive efficiency and they are 78th in offensive yards per play (5.4) and 86th in defensive yards per play (6.0).  This week, we’ve seen some strong movement against them at FoxBet which we’ll expand upon in our Best Bet section.

Underrated:  Texas A&M

Texas A&M may be the best unranked team in the country right now but unfortunately they’ve placed one of the most difficult schedules in the country so you woudn’t know it by the wins and loss column.  The Aggies have already played Clemson, Auburn, and Alabama (their only 3 losses), and still net out +0.4 yards per play, which is significant considering the difficult opposition.  Kellen Mond has been very good, throwing for over 2,200 yards with 17 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  Unlike the aforementioned Kansas State side the Aggies do rank in the Top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and are 20th in the country in opponent yards per pass attempt.  Jimbo Fisher has this program heading in the right direction meaning with a little schedule help this team could really start to hit its stride.  We are buyers of Texas A&M … Gig’Em!

Best Bet: [184] Texas -6.5 (-115)

We touched on the concerns we have for the Wildcats above and mentioned that they’ve “peaked” in the betting market.  On the other side there really may not be a better time to buy some stock in Texas than right now.  At 5-3, already under their regular season win total of 9.5, off a loss two weeks ago at TCU, who is backing the Longhorns here?  We are as they’re scheduled to return plenty of significant starters on both sides of the ball, most importantly in their secondary.  Texas plans to have safeties B.J. Foster and Caden Sterns available, a position grouping that desperately needs healthy capable bodies.  CB Jalen Green tried to give it a go vs TCU and clearly wasn’t at 100% but he should be back to 100% for this game.  Texas should look more like the team that competed with LSU earlier in the year than the side giving up yards in chunks to Kansas less than a month ago.  Texas ranks Top 10 in overall offensive efficiency and should have plenty of opportunities for success against this Kansas State defense.  We’re going to buy low on Texas and sell high on Kansas State.  Lay a TD or less with the Longhorns Saturday

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